Eli Lilly stock jumped over 3% to $1020 per share, hitting another record high. Citi hiked its price target on Eli Lilly to $1,500 from $1,250, implying a potential upside of more than 50% from current levels, pointing to accelerating expectations for the company’s oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron. The bank reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.
Following meetings with Eli Lilly’s management, Citi said it has become 「increasingly bullish on the orforglipron launch which adds significant optionality to shares.」 The bank expects a potential approval in the first quarter of 2026, with broad Medicare coverage expected this spring.
The Wall Street firm now forecasts 2026 orforglipron sales of $1.8 billion, up from $500 million previously and well above the roughly $470 million Bloomberg estimate, with the potential for 「good upside」 toward its more than $40 billion peak sales projection.
A faster launch ramp is expected due to expanded coverage and lower price points, both of which could support better adherence and broader uptake, Meacham said.
The analyst also pointed to last week’s Medicare and Medicaid agreement covering tirzepatide and orforglipron, which he said should accelerate Lilly’s dominance in the GLP-1 category.
「Expect more coverage barriers to come down,」 he wrote, noting that many commercial and private payers may follow Medicare’s lead in recognizing obesity as a covered indication.
"Whether it be GLP-1’s increasing value proposition or the optics of being aligned with the government channel, significantly better access is on the horizon," Meacham noted.
Citi expects the combination of increased coverage and strategic pricing to strengthen near-term momentum. It raised its 2030 sales estimates for orforglipron to $18.2 billion from $11.2 billion previously, and modestly increased its forecasts for Lilly’s injectable drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro.
Meacham said they remain confident that Lilly’s pipeline — which includes other obesity and diabetes assets such as retatrutide — continues to be underappreciated by the market.
「We believe the market currently underestimates the potential for key diabetes and obesity drugs,」 the note states.