Arbitrage Tracking: 1) Spreads: On November 14, the SC night session 1-3 month spread was -2.4 yuan/barrel, equivalent to -0.34 USD/barrel; Brent 1-3 month spread stood at 0.87 USD/barrel; WTI 1-3 month spread was 0.31 USD/barrel. The SC night session-Brent front-month contract spread was -0.68 USD/barrel, while SC night session-WTI front-month spread reached 3.66 USD/barrel.

2) Arbitrage: ① Valuation: At 2:30 AM on November 14, Brent 2601 futures traded at 63.01 USD/barrel, while SC 2602 futures were at 464.1 yuan/barrel. The theoretical price for SC 2602 was calculated at 489.2 yuan/barrel, indicating a -5.1% deviation from market valuation. Based on the 7-day moving average valuation range of [-5%, 0], current valuations are approaching normal levels. ② Margins: The calculated landing margin for SC2602 futures was -23.12 yuan/barrel (-3.26 USD/barrel). ③ Spread: The SC2602-Brent2601 spread was 1.22 USD/barrel versus a theoretical spread of 4.48 USD/barrel, showing market spread below theoretical levels. (Note: Last week's Brent front-month was 2601; SC front-month was 2512; where M represents current November)

3) Summary: Month spreads indicate renewed strength in Brent spreads last week, reflecting supply concerns for European and American energy production amid current instability. European diesel prices have hit new highs for the second half of the year, significantly outperforming crude, with refined product crack spreads continuing to strengthen.

For domestic-international spreads, the 7-day moving average shows SC-Brent inter-regional spreads trending slightly downward. Recent SC landing cost components reveal unusually strong freight rates, with Middle East shipping costs now accounting for about 7% of SC landing prices - well above the typical 2-3% freight-to-value ratio - making SC relatively stronger than international benchmarks. However, market consensus still slightly favors supply glut fundamentals. Upcoming tighter import quotas may slow SC import pace, though domestic oil prices will continue tracking international trends. For long SC-Brent spread positions, maintaining a wait-and-see approach is recommended.

Short-term outlook suggests crude prices face natural downward pressure from oversupply, though factors like Russian sanctions, energy infrastructure attacks, and geopolitical tensions continue injecting uncertainty that partially offsets downward pressure. This will likely keep oil prices oscillating in a volatile range. Given multiple unpredictable factors, especially geopolitical risks, crude will maintain high volatility - requiring careful timing in trading strategies.