Hot sectors, data centers, market trends, capital flows, and simulated trading clients are all highlighted in the original analysis.

The core logic is that liquidity pressure has been fully digested, holding costs have stopped rising and are declining, and capital flows are warming up, which together support a shift upward in precious metals' central valuation.

Where to Focus

Directional outlook: The rebound may be sustainable, expected to last until the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, with a phased bullish perspective. Timing: There is no need to chase prices at current levels; instead, consider buying on dips when geopolitical tensions flare up or economic data weighs on prices.

In recent days, precious metals have rotated in leadership, with platinum and palladium breaking out first, followed by gold and silver. The entire sector has reversed its half-year decline, showing a clear shift from bearish to bullish momentum.

Looking back over time, gold's stabilization began in mid-July when it found support during a second bottom. Although the month's trajectory was bumpy, price resilience has notably strengthened. Specifically, the two rebounds in early and late July were driven by liquidity restoration and increased buying interest. The resurgence of conflict in mid-month temporarily pushed up holding costs, but the interest rate side was primarily boosted by a higher term premium, which reinforced the narrative of structural reordering. Meanwhile, the dollar's brief strength was suppressed by Fed Chairman Walsh's "political" comments, limiting the pressure on gold during this liquidity-tight phase.

Entering August, joint intervention by the U.S. and Japanese central banks in the yen further weakened the dollar. The easing of geopolitical tensions also dampened expectations of rate hikes that had lingered since the conflict's onset, causing holding costs to stop rising and drop, which ignited market enthusiasm. In this process, confirmed data on capital re-entry has helped fuel the week's rally.

Sustainability Drivers

Looking ahead, we believe this rebound may be different and could have some sustainability. The main reason is that the core bearish factors—the internal and external aspects of order restoration trades—have already passed key peak points. On one hand, some economies' forced gold sales at the start of the March conflict were gradually absorbed by central banks increasing their purchases, as shown by central bank gold buying data. On the other hand, the hawkish aura of Walsh's July post-meeting stance has faded, revealing its "political" nature. The previous defense of independence may become a hollow promise, and before the Jackson Hole window for market communication, the market's latest impression of his "dovish" core is unlikely to change.

Timing Strategy

In terms of trading rhythm, we believe there is no need to chase prices at current levels. Instead, investors can buy on dips when geopolitical tensions flare up or economic data weighs on prices.

Figure 1: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Term Premium
Figure 2: Easing Geopolitics and Lower Interest Rates
Figure 3: SPDR ETF Slight Increase in Holdings
Figure 4: Notable Return of Speculative Funds in NY Gold Futures
Figure 5: China's Central Bank Accelerates Bond Selling and Gold Buying
Figure 6: Global Central Bank Gold Buying Recovery in Q2

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