According to the latest AI server industry analysis by TrendForce, global AI server shipments are projected to grow over 20% year-over-year (YoY) by 2026, driven by sustained demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) and sovereign clouds. This growth will be further supported by the expansion of AI inference applications, with AI servers expected to account for 17% of total server shipments.

For 2025, TrendForce has slightly revised its AI server shipment growth forecast downward to around 24% YoY, citing delays in NVIDIA's GB300 and B300 rollouts. However, AI server revenue is anticipated to surge nearly 48% YoY in 2025, fueled by the higher-value integrated AI solutions such as Blackwell, GB200, and GB300 rack-scale systems.

By 2026, AI server revenue is forecast to grow over 30% YoY, driven by GPU suppliers' aggressive push for rack-scale solutions and CSPs' increased investments in ASIC-based AI infrastructure. AI servers are expected to contribute 74% of total server revenue.

In terms of AI chip supplier competition, NVIDIA is projected to maintain a dominant 70% market share in 2025. However, by 2026, intensified competition from North American CSPs and China's self-developed AI chips is likely to shift demand toward ASICs, potentially reducing NVIDIA's market share.

HBM Demand and Pricing Outlook High-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains critical for high-end AI chips, while mid-to-low-tier products rely on Graphics DRAM. With GPU demand remaining strong and suppliers advancing product iterations, HBM capacity per chip is increasing significantly. TrendForce estimates HBM demand to surge over 130% YoY in 2025, with consumption growth exceeding 70% YoY in 2026, driven by the adoption of B300, GB300, R100/R200, VR100/VR200, and upgrades to HBM3e by Google TPU and AWS Trainium.

HBM3e prices are expected to rise 5-10% YoY in 2025 due to strong demand from NVIDIA and AMD chips, alongside ASIC upgrades. However, with Samsung completing HBM3e validation, 2026 may see intensified competition among major suppliers, potentially leading to price declines as buyers gain bargaining power.

Meanwhile, HBM4 is entering the sampling phase, with its 2026 pricing expected to be significantly higher than HBM3e, offering suppliers better profit margins. However, if all three major suppliers complete validation next year, renegotiations on pricing could occur.