Wall Street is gearing up for three potentially record-breaking initial public offerings (IPOs) within the next 18 months. The focus among investment banks isn’t on the debut performance of SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI—but rather on what could happen when existing shareholders attempt to offload billions in stock.
These companies have raised unprecedented sums in private funding, creating a risk: concentrated selling by early investors post-IPO could trigger steep price declines. While lock-up periods (typically 3–6 months) mitigate this, the sheer scale of early holdings at SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI amplifies the threat.
Banks are already strategizing solutions, even for firms not yet formally preparing IPOs. At least two major banks have rejected standard 90–180 day lock-ups, instead proposing phased release mechanisms for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. One Anthropic investor confirmed banks are floating the idea to select shareholders, pending approval.
"Given the size of these IPOs, banks must rethink traditional lock-ups," said Jon Redmond, a former Morgan Stanley banker now at Discovery Capital.
SpaceX is expected to lead the wave, targeting a summer 2025 IPO. Banks vying for lead underwriter roles will meet with SpaceX this week. The company declined to comment. OpenAI and Anthropic’s timelines remain fluid, with potential debuts in late 2025 or 2026. Anthropic’s spokesperson cited "no concrete plans," while OpenAI didn’t respond.
Per PitchBook, Anthropic and OpenAI have each raised tens of billions privately—far surpassing peers—while SpaceX has secured ~$10B. Banks project each could raise $25–50B in their IPOs, rivaling history’s largest tech listings.
Typically, IPOs restrict bulk sales by early investors for six months, though exceptions exist (e.g., Airbnb, Instacart). Precedents like Facebook’s 2012 IPO (which used staggered unlocks) and Figma’s 2024 extended lock-up (over one year for majority holders) inform current discussions.
Proposals include: - Tiered unlock schedules (e.g., 20–30 day intervals) - Price-triggered release windows - "Surprise clauses" to obscure lock-up end dates (pending regulatory approval)
The winning banks stand to earn billions in fees—3% of a $50B IPO would yield $1.5B. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs dominate tech IPOs, with Morgan Stanley deepening ties to Elon Musk (SpaceX, xAI) and Goldman advising OpenAI’s restructuring. Both banks declined comment.
Bids may also include sweeteners like future lending facilities or corporate client agreements. As one ex-banker noted: "This won’t be about who tells the best story—it’s about what you’ve tangibly done for them."