NEBIUS shares closed at USD 188.43, rising 27.13% from the previous session’s close.

The options market saw a definitive bearish stamp, headlined by a massive $24.57 million sale of deeply out-of-the-money $400 calls expiring in 2028. This single trade, representing a conviction that the stock will remain well below that level, overshadowed a smaller $2.22 million put sale and set a cautiously negative tone for the session.

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Options Indicators

NBIS has an implied volatility of 144.62%, and its IV percentile stands at 94.02%, which places current volatility firmly in the elevated range. That suggests options are priced expensively relative to their own recent history, with the market embedding very large expected moves into premiums. The IV/HV ratio of 1.10 also indicates implied volatility is running modestly above realized volatility, reinforcing the view that options are carrying a rich premium rather than looking cheap.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.11.

Large Trades

A CALL sale worth $24.57 million was the largest large trade of the day, with 3,780 contracts sold at the 400.00 strike expiring on 2028-01-21. With NBIS referenced at $188.43, this call was deeply out-of-the-money at execution. The trade reflects a bearish or at least strongly capped-upside view, as the seller collected premium while positioning for the stock to remain well below $400.00 through expiration. Strategically, this kind of single-leg short call is typically used to generate income from elevated upside strike premium, but it also signals that the trader does not expect a move anywhere near that level over the life of the option.

A PUT sale worth $2.22 million was the other highlighted large trade, with 2,675 contracts sold at the 145.00 strike expiring on 2026-08-21. Since the strike sat below the $188.43 reference price, the put was out-of-the-money when traded. This is a moderately bullish position, as the seller received premium while expressing confidence that NBIS can stay above $145.00 into expiration. In strategic terms, the trade suggests either income generation with a constructive bias or willingness to accumulate shares at a lower effective entry level if assigned.

Overall sentiment in NBIS large options flow was clearly bearish. The dominant feature of the tape was aggressive call selling, led by the very large far-out-of-the-money 2028 $400.00 call sale and reinforced by additional bearish-positioned flow elsewhere in the large-trade set. While there was some bullish activity, including out-of-the-money put selling and a smaller call purchase, it was materially outweighed by the size and character of the bearish trades. Taken together, the large-trade activity points to expectations for limited upside and a cautious-to-negative directional outlook on NBIS.

Strategy Reference

For income-focused traders, selling the 400.00 strike call expiring in 2028 offers a wide buffer, but a more conservative defined-risk approach could use a bear call spread, such as selling the 400.00 call and buying a higher-strike call to cap margin requirements.