Following gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has taken action once again!
On January 23, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice stating that, starting from the settlement after market close on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, it will adjust the price limit ranges and trading margins for related futures contracts such as nickel, lead, and zinc.
The specific adjustments are as follows: The price limit for listed nickel futures contracts is adjusted to 10%, with the margin for hedging positions set at 11% and the margin for speculative positions at 12%. The price limit for listed alumina, lead, and zinc futures contracts is adjusted to 8%, with hedging margins at 9% and speculative margins at 10%. The price limit for listed stainless steel futures contracts is adjusted to 6%, with hedging margins at 7% and speculative margins at 8%.
From the futures market perspective, Shanghai nickel prices surged sharply in the afternoon session today, closing nearly 4% higher. On the news front, Indonesia is expected to approve nickel ore production quotas of approximately 260 million metric tons around 2026.
Zhongyou Securities pointed out that nickel is one of the few base metals that has missed out on the bull market in non-ferrous metals seen since 2024. As of January 5, 2026, nickel has only risen by 3% since the start of 2024, a significantly smaller gain compared to precious metals, industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc, and energy metals like cobalt and lithium carbonate. Should Indonesian policies lead to a supply-demand gap for the metal, there is potential for a sharp, high-elasticity catch-up rally.
Furthermore, recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement regarding adjustments to export tax rebate policies for products like photovoltaics. It clarified that, effective April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebates will be cancelled for products including some lithium battery materials. Analyst surveys indicate that as the date for cancelling the rebates approaches, manufacturers of ternary precursors and ternary materials, who primarily serve overseas markets, are actively adjusting their production schedules. A noticeable wave of concentrated "front-loading" exports is anticipated in the first quarter.
The main products involved in the ternary materials sector include: the mainstream ternary precursor products lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide and lithium nickel cobalt aluminate oxide, as well as the mainstream ternary cathode material products nickel cobalt manganese hydroxide and nickel cobalt aluminum hydroxide.
It is noteworthy that following Shanghai's earlier release of the "Action Plan for Strengthening Futures-Spot Linkage to Enhance the Capability Level of Non-Ferrous Metal Bulk Commodities," this adjustment of trading rules is a key supporting measure for building the futures-spot linkage ecosystem. By optimizing trading mechanisms and improving risk control systems, the SHFE is gradually narrowing the regulatory gap with major international exchanges like the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the CME Group Inc, laying an institutional foundation for the internationalization of the "Shanghai Price."
Industry insiders believe that widening the price limits essentially provides more room for market sentiment to play out. Moreover, the adjusted ranges are now closer to the levels set by major international exchanges. This can accommodate short-term price volatility while using tiered margin requirements to precisely curb excessive speculation. Simultaneously, increasing the margin ratio directly raises the cost of speculation, which may lead to the exit of some short-term speculative capital. In the long run, however, capital is expected to concentrate towards industrial participants and professional institutions, potentially enhancing market pricing efficiency.