Demand for AI computing power has triggered a surge in memory chip prices, reshaping the global television market's shipment rhythm into a distinct "high early, low later" pattern this year, driven by rising cost expectations and World Cup stocking.
Grupo Televisa SAB (Mexico TV) reports that Q1 global TV shipments exceeded expectations with a 2.8% growth, supported by World Cup preparation and pre-stocking due to memory price hikes. The trend continued into Q2, but with a divergence in brand competitiveness: top-tier players maintained strong demand, while second-tier manufacturers saw weakening orders. In the second half, cost pressures on TV sets intensify, leading to significant profitability challenges. It is forecasted that Q3 global TV shipments will decline 3.5% year-on-year, with Q4's decline widening to 6.8%.
Where to start with regional opportunities
Regional market fundamentals diverge, with each area relying on its own consumer base, industrial support, event-driven demand, and ecosystem maturity to navigate the contraction. The Chinese market is shifting from volume to value, with Mini LED and high refresh rate technologies rapidly gaining traction. Grupo Televisa SAB predicts a 7.0% decline in China's 2026 TV shipments, dropping below 30 million units. In North America, stable consumption and World Cup benefits underpin demand, while the OS ecosystem becomes a competitive battleground. Shipments are expected to reach 49.7 million units in 2026, a slight 0.2% drop. Emerging markets, sensitive to price increases, face short-term pressure but hold long-term growth potential in both volume and product structure, especially as low-cost Mini LED and high refresh rate solutions penetrate downward.
Why focus on the "hardware to ecosystem" shift
Over the next two years, the global TV industry transformation will be driven by two main forces: cost restructuring from memory price hikes and OS ecosystem competition. The former tests supply chain resilience and product mix flexibility, while the latter evaluates brand capabilities in ecosystem building and monetization. Memory chip price increases have reshaped the bill of materials (BOM), forcing brands to balance profit and market share. Additional component cost pressures are expected in the second half. Grupo Televisa SAB suggests that TV makers must strengthen supply chain resilience, adjust product structures, and leverage AI models to drive regional OS ecosystem differentiation, with opportunities for TVs as a home screen service platform to be redefined.