According to a research report by CMSC, the express delivery sector recorded a 17.2% year-on-year growth in volume for the first nine months of 2025, with September alone rising 12.7%. However, October's growth showed signs of slowing, likely due to variations in promotional intensity and timing for the Double 11 shopping festival.

The "anti-internalization" trend has driven price recovery, profitability improvements, and valuation rebounds in the industry. Since August, most regions have completed their first round of price hikes, with increases ranging from RMB 0.2 to 0.4 per parcel. In October, secondary price adjustments were observed in areas like Guangdong, with increments of RMB 0.1 to 0.2. With peak season price adjustments largely finalized, Q4 profitability is expected to surge year-on-year.

Key takeaways from CMSC’s report include: - **Express Volume Growth**: In September 2025, national express delivery volume reached 16.88 billion parcels, up 12.7% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.5 percentage points (pct) from August. - **Pricing Recovery**: Average revenue per parcel narrowed its decline to 4.9% YoY, settling at RMB 7.55, a 2.3 pct improvement from August. Month-on-month, prices rose 2.4%. - **Sector Revenue**: Total express revenue hit RMB 127.37 billion, growing 7.2% YoY, a 3 pct acceleration from the previous month.

**Consumer & E-Commerce Trends**: From January to September, total retail sales reached RMB 36.59 trillion, up 4.5% YoY, while September’s retail sales grew 3% to RMB 4.2 trillion. Online retail sales of physical goods climbed 6.5% YoY to RMB 9.15 trillion in the first nine months, with September alone rising 7.3% to RMB 1.06 trillion. E-commerce penetration expanded to 25.0% (+0.48 pct YoY), peaking at 25.2% (+1 pct YoY) in September.

**Major Players’ Performance**: - **Volume Growth**: SF Express (002352.SZ) led with a 31.8% YoY surge, handling 1.5 billion parcels in September. YTO Express (600233.SH), Yunda (002120.SZ), and STO Express (002468.SZ) posted growth rates of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5%, respectively. - **Pricing Trends**: YTO, Yunda, and STO saw parcel prices rise both YoY and MoM, with increases of 1.4%, 0.5%, and 5% YoY, respectively. - **Revenue Growth**: SF Express, YTO, Yunda, and STO reported revenue growth of 14.2%, 14.9%, 4.1%, and 14.9% YoY. - **Market Share**: SF Express and YTO gained share YoY, while Yunda and STO experienced declines.

**Recommended Stocks**: ZTO Express-W (02057), YTO Express (600233.SH), STO Express (002468.SZ), Yunda (002120.SZ), and SF Express (002352.SZ).

**Risks**: Price wars, franchise network instability, macroeconomic slowdown, cost surges, and shifts in international trade policies.