On August 15th, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9th decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, matching levels seen in November 2021 and coming in below the expected 225,000 and the previous reading of 226,000. Analysts noted that economic uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff policies has led companies to reduce new hiring efforts, though the low level of initial claims indicates that businesses are not conducting large-scale layoffs. Continuing claims for the week ending August 2nd fell to 1.953 million, below the expected 1.967 million and the previous 1.974 million. Analysts observed that continuing claims have remained near their highest levels since 2021 over recent months, suggesting that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to secure new employment.

Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly clearly stated in a media interview on Wednesday that she opposes implementing a substantial 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, believing such a move could send unnecessary emergency signals. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged the Federal Reserve not to "rush" into rate cuts before inflation is fully under control, highlighting significant divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of rate reductions. Daly indicated that a 50 basis point cut "sounds like we're seeing an emergency," but she expressed no concern about the labor market and sees no need for catch-up rate cuts. She supports a gradual adjustment toward a more neutral policy stance over "the next year or so."

Key data to watch today includes the U.S. August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, U.S. July Import Price Index month-over-month, U.S. July Retail Sales month-over-month, Canada June Manufacturing Sales month-over-month, and the U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading.

Gold/USD Gold experienced volatile decline yesterday, closing modestly lower on the daily chart, with current trading near 3346. Besides profit-taking pressure on gold, the dollar index's gains supported by positive economic data that cooled Fed rate cut expectations and optimistic Fed official commentary also contributed to gold's retreat. Furthermore, diminishing risk-aversion sentiment in the market also weighed on safe-haven gold. Today, focus on resistance near 3370, with support around 3320.

USD/JPY USD/JPY rebounded from lows yesterday, closing modestly higher on the daily chart, currently trading near 147.10. Apart from short covering providing some support to the exchange rate, the dollar index's rebound driven by positive economic data and optimistic Fed official remarks that cooled Fed rate cut expectations also supported the pair's gains. However, renewed expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes limited the pair's rebound potential. Today, watch for resistance near 148.00, with support around 146.00.

USD/CAD USD/CAD moved higher in volatile trading yesterday, reaching a 9-session high, currently trading near 1.3800. The dollar index's strength supported by positive economic data and optimistic Fed official commentary was the primary driver of the pair's advance, while additional U.S. tariffs on Canada also provided some support. However, oil prices' recovery from lows limited the pair's upside potential. Today, focus on resistance near 1.3900, with support around 1.3700.