Following its official inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, the stock performance and long-term valuation of SpaceX have become a focal point for ongoing analysis by Wall Street investment research firms. In response to the recent pullback in its share price, financial analysts suggest that as the initial irrational hype surrounding its listing subsides, the valuation framework for SpaceX is shifting from pure concept-driven speculation to a scrutiny of its actual business execution. They believe that artificial intelligence (AI) computing power leasing and the Starlink satellite communications network will become the central drivers determining its future market capitalization.

Market trading data shows that as of the close on July 10th, SpaceX shares were fluctuating around $149 per share. Although this price remains above the $135 initial public offering (IPO) price, it represents a significant decline of approximately 34% from its post-listing peak of $225.60.

Investment analysis firms note that the current stock price correction has not diminished long-term interest from major capital but has instead prompted a more rational reassessment of SpaceX's valuation. Current baseline forecasts from Wall Street research institutions project that its share price could recover to around $220 per share by the end of 2026. This projection is based on the assumption of a phased contraction in valuation multiples, offset by sufficiently high long-term revenue growth to alleviate valuation pressures.

Compliant financial disclosures reveal that SpaceX demonstrated strong revenue expansion in its 2025 financial performance, with annual operating revenue growing 33% year-over-year to $18.7 billion. However, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion for the same period, impacted by the consolidation of the heavily loss-making AI startup xAI.

Industry analysts emphasize that despite facing short-term losses, SpaceX's underlying assets and core businesses possess significant monetization potential. Currently, the Starlink network boasts approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit and has surpassed 10.3 million users, continuing to serve as its fundamental revenue base. Concurrently, AI infrastructure is emerging as the company's most explosive second growth curve. Regulatory filings indicate that Alphabet, Google's parent company, has reached an agreement with SpaceX, planning to pay $92 million per month between October 2026 and June 2029 for access to approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and related computing resources. Furthermore, the AI unicorn Anthropic has also signed a significant computing power access agreement, securing usage rights for SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. Estimates suggest that if these two AI computing power orders are fully realized, they could generate substantial annual revenue of approximately $26 billion for SpaceX.

Regarding the future evolution of its market capitalization, Wall Street analysts widely anticipate that SpaceX's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is elevated. With a trading market capitalization nearing $2 trillion, it currently stands at 51.4 times the baseline 2026 revenue forecast of $38.9 billion. As the IPO fervor subsides, its forward P/S ratio is expected to undergo a structural compression of 20% to 25% by the end of 2026, settling back into a more rational range of 38.5x to 41x.

Investment bank strategy teams point out that, given the concentrated release of AI computing dividends and Starlink expansion expected in 2027, the market will likely price the stock based on 2027 revenue expectations at that time. The current Wall Street consensus average revenue forecast for SpaceX in 2027 is $72.4 billion. Applying the revised P/S ratio range yields a corresponding implied total market capitalization between $2.79 trillion and $2.97 trillion. Based on the company's current outstanding share count of approximately 13.1 billion shares, this implies that by the end of 2026, SpaceX's reasonable share price range should be between $213 and $227, with the $220 baseline forecast aligning with the current macroeconomic fundamentals.