The non-ferrous metals sector led gains in the market today (May 26). The sector saw a net inflow of 10.968 billion yuan from main funds throughout the day, ranking first among the 31 primary Shenwan industries in terms of capital attraction. The largest ETF tracking the underlying index, Huabao Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159876), saw its intraday price surge over 3.2% and closed up 2.85%, successfully reclaiming both the 10-day and half-year moving averages. Its full-day turnover reached 168 million yuan, a sharp increase of 93% from the previous day, indicating active trading.
Among the constituent stocks, Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (CHALCO), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Jinduicheng Molybdenum saw their shares hit the daily limit-up. Nanshan Aluminum rose over 8%, while Guocheng Mining, Western Gold, Yunnan Aluminium, and Tianshan Aluminum Group gained more than 7%. Major weighted stock China Molybdenum rose over 5%, and Zijin Mining Group increased by more than 4%.
On the macroeconomic front, news of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran boosted market sentiment, with expectations that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen. Possibly influenced by related news, international oil prices fell sharply by over 5%, easing inflation concerns. Dongwu Securities believes that current market expectations for interest rate hikes by the end of 2026 to 2027 may be excessive. The U.S. economy is not "overheating" but is driven by a dual-engine structure of AI and energy, leading to a K-shaped economic recovery. The market may have mispriced the interest rate hike expectations.
On the industry front, Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, plans to introduce export controls on bauxite next month to support aluminum prices. Guinea accounts for over one-third of global bauxite production, and its policy changes have directly heightened market concerns about tightening raw material supply. From an industrial logic perspective, companies with high self-sufficiency in ore or diversified overseas layouts will benefit first. Aluminum industry leaders with significant resource advantages, such as Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (CHALCO), Yunnan Aluminium, and Tianshan Aluminum Group, are expected to take the initiative in this round of raw material price negotiations.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that, from a medium-term perspective, the global manufacturing PMI for April exceeded expectations and showed an upward trend. Overseas manufacturing demand continues to recover, and prices of non-ferrous metals, represented by copper and aluminum, are expected to benefit from inflation expectations and rise. They remain optimistic about the medium-term investment opportunities in industrial metals, represented by copper and aluminum.
Looking ahead, industry insiders stated that cyclical resource sectors like non-ferrous metals, despite facing short-term market volatility, are still promising in the long term due to industrial structure optimization and sustained demand growth. Furthermore, based on analysis of performance trend models, the current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector is reasonable, and it may see a rebound. It is recommended to focus on its potential performance within the industrial chain and seize the investment window presented by the oversold conditions.