Spot gold has established a firm footing above the $4,500 mark. On August 21, the price broke through $4,550 per ounce, and at the time of writing, international spot gold was trading at $4,554.441 per ounce, up 0.8%. COMEX gold futures also climbed 0.59% to $4,598.4 per ounce. Since dipping below $4,000 per ounce on June 30, gold has been on a rebound trajectory, with August seeing an acceleration in this momentum. The first week of the month delivered the largest weekly gain of the year, successfully breaking through resistance levels at $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce.

On August 19, following the U.S. Treasury's announcement of expanded liquidity-support buyback operations, spot gold surged 4.36%, rallying through the $4,400 and $4,500 psychological barriers intraday to close at $4,522 per ounce—its highest level since June 2. COMEX gold futures mirrored this strength, jumping $191.2, or 4.36%, to settle at $4,580.7 per ounce. Although gold saw a modest pullback on August 20, the overall upward momentum remained intact.

Gold is currently trading near $4,550 per ounce, on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, with monthly gains of approximately 12%. This rally has also lifted domestic gold jewelry prices in China. On August 21, prices for branded gold jewelry generally exceeded 1,350 yuan per gram, with some surpassing 1,360 yuan. Chow Sang Sang priced its pure gold ornaments at 1,365 yuan per gram, adding 6 yuan after a substantial 46-yuan jump the previous day. Chow Tai Fook, CHJ, and Chow Tai Seng all quoted 1,363 yuan per gram, up 8 yuan, while Luk Fook Jewellery and GoldzEN saw prices exceed 1,360 yuan, reaching 1,361 yuan per gram, also up 8 yuan. Monthly increases for branded gold jewelry have generally surpassed 100 yuan per gram.

Market analysts point out that this price movement is not driven by a single safe-haven factor alone. Instead, it reflects a confluence of rapidly falling long-end Treasury yields, a weakening U.S. dollar, repricing of fiscal risk premiums, and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Treasury's intervention policy has also created a rare "dual-path benefit" structure for gold: if expanded buybacks push down real interest rates and the dollar, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold decreases. Conversely, if buybacks fail and long-term bond yields rise due to fiscal concerns, gold benefits as a sovereign credit hedge tool.

On the news front, data from the U.S. Treasury released on August 19 showed total federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion. The Treasury announced it would "at least double" its liquidity-support buyback operations for long-term bonds, increasing from $20 billion to $40 billion, targeting securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years. Bai Suna, manager of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center at Guodu Futures Research Institute, told The Paper that this was the direct catalyst for gold's surge, signaling a critical move to suppress long-end yields. The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell rapidly in response, and the dollar index weakened in tandem, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving prices higher. Since August, with macro headwinds easing and investor sentiment recovering, gold has confirmed its bottom and is trending upward in a central range.

Looking ahead, $4,500 is expected to become the new key battleground. "Long-term bonds from the U.S. and other developed economies have been sold off, with soaring long-end yields raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, creating short-term pressure. However, with U.S. federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio, gold's role as a sovereign credit hedge is strengthened in the medium to long term, and its safe-haven premium is likely to continue rising," said Qu Rui, senior deputy director of the Research and Development Department at Golden Credit Rating.

TD Securities believes recent U.S. policy signals remain broadly supportive of gold. The firm notes that the Treasury's signal of support for the long-end Treasury market, combined with the possibility that the Fed may look past temporary energy price increases, forms a favorable policy mix for gold. This suggests that even if Treasury yields rise in the near term, gold's medium-term fundamentals remain largely intact.

Wall Street's target prices for gold over the next year are clustered around $5,000 following the August acceleration. UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office maintains its year-end target of $4,600 per ounce and has introduced a new September 2027 target of $5,400 per ounce, $200 higher than its June 2027 forecast. "This is mainly because we believe inflation moderation will become the market's main theme next year. With favorable base effects and other factors, inflationary pressures are expected to ease, benefiting assets like gold that were previously constrained by rate hike expectations. Additionally, we anticipate U.S. economic activity to be at or below trend. If that materializes, the dollar could come under pressure, further supporting gold demand," the firm stated, adding that any pullback in gold prices should be viewed as an opportunity to add positions given the long-term bullish outlook.

Citi strategist Dirk Willer sees gold reaching $5,000–$6,000 per ounce over the next year, citing Treasury intervention, risks of uncontrolled term premium in U.S. bonds, a weak dollar, and a potential revival of "de-dollarization" trades. Citi believes that with the long end of the yield curve under control, gold retains upside potential, and "investors may need to unwind yield curve steepening trades and rotate back into gold while selling the dollar."

Deutsche Bank's year-end base case target ranges from $4,700 to $5,100 per ounce, supported by two non-price-sensitive demand sources: central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Gold ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately 1.5 million ounces over the past 30 days, with cumulative year-to-date additions of about 4 million ounces, while central bank gold purchases reached $38.88 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

Michael Hartnett, senior strategist at Bank of America, advocates that "going long gold is the optimal move right now," viewing it as the best hedge against dollar depreciation, bond market collapse, and asset inflation. James Stanley, senior strategist at GAIN Capital, noted, "Gold appears to be stalling at the $4,500 psychological level in the short term. But given the significant resistance seen earlier at $4,435, any pullback into that zone could provide an ideal area for trend traders and strategies to find bullish continuation signals."