The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has issued a new administrative order on August 6, implementing a complete ban on the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. Alongside this, the DRC government has introduced a fresh tax framework targeting economically valuable mining by-products, with a valuation coefficient set at 55%.

This new tax structure is scheduled to take effect three months from now. According to SMM, the DRC government had previously signed an administrative decree on June 29 banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, though the Minister of Mines could still grant export exemptions valid for one year. In a separate report by Reuters, the new tax framework will become effective after three months, and the export ban specifically targets primary products like copper and cobalt concentrates, while refined products such as cathode copper and blister copper can still be exported.

SMM explains that this policy is not a sudden, comprehensive prohibition on concentrate exports. The DRC had already implemented a strict approval system for copper and cobalt concentrate exports, requiring companies to obtain government-approved export quotas or exemptions. Therefore, this latest policy represents a further clarification and tightening within the existing regulatory framework.

Currently, the copper concentrates available for export from the DRC primarily come from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, co-owned by Zijin Mining Group and Ivanhoe Mines. In 2025, this project produced 388,800 tonnes of copper in concentrate, and in the second quarter of 2026, it produced 62,100 tonnes of anode copper. As local smelting capacity gradually ramps up, Kamoa-Kakula's export products are shifting from copper concentrates to anode copper.

Regarding the practical impact of this policy, Wang Weiwei, a non-ferrous metals analyst at First Futures, noted that from a supply structure perspective, most of the DRC's copper comes from hydrometallurgical oxide ores, which directly produce cathode copper and are unaffected by this policy. The real impact falls on copper concentrates from sulfide ores, with Kamoa-Kakula contributing nearly all of the country's concentrate production capacity. Currently, the DRC's sulfide mines produce approximately 470,000 tonnes of copper metal annually, of which about 210,000 tonnes are smelted domestically into anode copper and blister copper, while approximately 260,000 tonnes of copper concentrates are directly exported—this portion is directly constrained by the new policy.

Wang Weiwei believes that due to insufficient local power supply and limited pyrometallurgical smelting capacity in the DRC, it will be difficult to fully absorb all copper concentrate production in the short term. Additionally, historically, similar policies in the DRC have been delayed multiple times, with exemption periods set for smelting projects under construction. Therefore, the ultimate impact of this policy depends on the transition arrangements and exemption details in the formal documents. "If the policy is strictly enforced after three months with no exemption period, global copper concentrate supply will contract, leading to a further decline in concentrate processing fees and providing upward momentum for copper prices. If the previous exemption mechanisms continue, allowing ongoing smelting projects to proceed, the practical impact will be limited," Wang said.

Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guoxin Futures, believes that this ban, combined with the new tax framework, reflects the DRC's ongoing push to localize mineral resource processing, using methods such as "banning raw ores, controlling quotas, increasing taxes, and promoting processing" to retain more value from the industrial chain within the country. In the medium to long term, resource-rich countries strengthening controls over critical mineral resources will drive adjustments in the global copper raw material supply pattern and provide support for copper prices.