Spot precious metals on the London market traded in a narrow range overnight, briefly touching $4,696.83 per ounce during the session, marking the highest level since mid-May before closing 0.21% higher.
Significant progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations was reported, which drove oil prices sharply lower. Gold is currently exhibiting a firm yet rangebound pattern in the near term. Tonight's release of the US July PCE inflation data, alongside the revised Q2 GDP figures, comes just ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with the outcomes poised to influence dollar strength and interest rate expectations.
On the macro front, the US Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August, hitting its lowest point since January and marking a seven-month low. Simultaneously, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for August declined for the first time in three months, as concerns over deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation intensify among consumers.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that if inflation improvement fails to persist, recent tightening measures would be appropriate. She noted upside risks to inflation stemming from supply shocks and stronger-than-expected economic activity, while AI infrastructure appears to be pushing up core goods inflation.
On the geopolitical front, further major headway in US-Iran talks has been reported, with media suggesting both sides have reached a consensus on ceasefire terms, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
With macro sentiment warming, gold maintains its stronger trajectory. However, near-term volatility should be monitored closely. On the 28th, Fed Chair Powell's first keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium could trigger a repricing of September rate hike expectations if he delivers a clear anti-inflation signal.
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