Traders Unfazed in "Quietest" Market Selloff as Big Days Pile Up

Bloomberg
04-22

As the S&P 500 plunged again, the dollar tumbled and gold surged to a new record, Wall Street seemed overwhelmed by a sense of ho-hum.

“This is the quietest, calmest down 4% day I can recall,” said Dave Lutz, a 30-year veteran known for his market commentary. “Equity and options volumes are non-existent.”

Unlike earlier in the month — say April 3 and 4 the S&P 500 plunged over 10% after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs, or a week later when it jumped 9.5% after he paused them temporarily — the vibe among investment pros and money managers seemed fairly tranquil, if a bit bemused. The challenge of looking through an opaque window has created a lot of guessing.

“It is all about the economy right now, but no one has any insight as to what will or could happen,” said Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan. “There is a big fear of making any big moves, just a sense that in a dark room with a lot of sharp glass on the floor, the best thing to do is stand still and hope the lights come back on.”

April 2025 is on track to take its place among the most volatile stretches on record, next to October 2008 and March 2020. But unlike in those periods, when there was a global financial crisis or worldwide pandemic, this time an uneasy calm has settled over Wall Street — at least in traders’ psyches, if not the price action.

The S&P 500 has posted a 2% move in either direction once a week this year, on average, compared with a long-term average of twice a month. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is hovering near 35, a level that usually signals distress.

Still, trading volumes were far less than the average so far in April, down to about 13.5 billion shares from just over 20 billion.

“It is VERY quiet on our desk,” Elan Luger, global head of risk trading at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk wrote in an afternoon note on Monday.

But even as the S&P 500 heads for its worst month since September 2022, there have been few signs of panic. Individual investors in particularly keep buying. As of 2:30 p.m. in New York on Monday, retail traders had net bought $2.2 billion of stocks, significantly above the last one-month’s average, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global quantitative and derivatives strategist Emma Wu.

“I don’t sense panic at all. Just a buyer’s strike,” said Hirtle Callaghan’s Conger. “The S&P 500 is trading at about 20 times expected earnings right now and a panic would look more like 16 times.”

Trading veterans know, though, that things can quickly turn harrowing. Earnings season is about to kick into high gear, with companies flying blind and investors keying on outlooks and capital spending plans, rather than profits.

“There isn’t much good news to go around,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer at Roundhill Financial. “Investors aren’t as willing to stick their necks out right now. The uncertainty around trade policy plus Trump pummeling Powell are too much for already shaky markets to handle.”

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10