Currently, China's baijiu industry is undergoing an adjustment period. From the recently disclosed 2025 interim reports of baijiu companies, it's evident that some enterprises are facing certain development pressures.

However, during this industry adjustment period, the bare bottle baijiu market has bucked the trend with explosive growth, becoming a bright spot against the backdrop of the overall baijiu industry's downturn.

According to data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, the bare bottle baijiu market size grew from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to 98.8 billion yuan in 2021, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 13.8%. In 2024, the bare bottle baijiu industry market size exceeded 150 billion yuan, with industry forecasts predicting the market scale could surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025. This demonstrates the vast future development potential of the bare bottle baijiu market.

From the current market situation, whether through random visits to multiple large supermarkets in Guangzhou or observations of online platform sales, leading brands dominate the bare bottle baijiu market. Products from well-known brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jing Jiu, and Fenjiu are most commonly seen, with prices generally concentrated in the 20-100 yuan range, covering mainstream consumption price points from mid-low to mid-high end, meeting the needs of different consumers.

In recent years, the popularity of the bare bottle baijiu market has also been reflected in liquor companies' active strategic positioning. According to incomplete statistics, seven companies have launched bare bottle baijiu products so far, specifically including Yanghe Co., Yilite, Yangshao Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiannanchun, Jinshiyuan, and Huaizhuang Liquor. Among them, Yanghe Co.'s Yanghe Daqu high-end bare bottle baijiu launched in June this year achieved sales of over 10,000 bottles within 48 hours of online presale and topped JD.com's baijiu bestseller list on the same day.

On JD.com's baijiu bestseller list and JD.com's baijiu gold list, bare bottle baijiu also has a strong presence. As of press time, among the top 25 products on the list, brands include Shanxi Fenjiu's Bofen, Wuliangye's Mianrou Jianzhuang, Yanghe Daqu high-end bare bottle baijiu, Xiao Langjiu, and Tuopai. Fenjiu's yellow-cap Bofen even secured positions in the top 20 of both lists.

Beyond online sales, bare bottle baijiu has also achieved good results in offline retail stores. Data shows that a 500ml bare bottle baijiu priced at 9.9 yuan, launched by German chain supermarket Aldi in early June 2024, triggered massive buying in the domestic market. According to incomplete statistics, the 70-yuan Baofeng Freedom Love, a collaboration between Pangdonglai and Baofeng Liquor, sells 3,000-4,000 cases daily on weekdays and 5,000-7,000 cases on weekends and holidays. A relevant person in charge of Hema's Chengdu region revealed that Hema's four bare bottle baijiu products currently maintain an average annual sales growth of 60%.

Further observation of online purchase reviews reveals that consumers choose bare bottle baijiu mainly for reasons such as lower alcohol content, high cost-effectiveness, easy drinking, suitability for family consumption, and less likelihood of causing hangovers.

Industry insiders indicate that bare bottle baijiu sells so well mainly due to multiple factors including changing consumption trends, industry adjustments, and active corporate positioning.

In recent years, many baijiu companies have achieved sales growth through bare bottle baijiu. Shanxi Fenjiu's 2024 operating revenue was 36.011 billion yuan, up 12.79% year-on-year, with "other liquors" including "ordinary Fenjiu, ordinary Zhuyeqing, Xinghuacun liquor, and Bofen" generating revenue of 9.342 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year. In the first half of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's "other liquors" including black-cap products generated revenue of 1.625 billion yuan, up 6.86% year-on-year. According to official information from Xiao Langjiu, cumulative sales of Xiao Langjiu exceeded 220 million bottles in 2023.

Notably, bare bottle baijiu prices have undergone significant changes in recent years. Previously, bare bottle baijiu was mainly dominated by low-end products around 20 yuan such as Niulanshan Chen Niang, Hongxing Erguotou, and Laocunzhang. However, with market development, major liquor companies have launched high-end bare bottle baijiu, gradually pushing prices up to the 50-100 yuan range. The 58-yuan Yangshao liquor, 59-yuan Yanghe Daqu high-end bare bottle baijiu, and 98-yuan Luzhou Laojiao black-cap bare bottle baijiu are typical representatives.

Additionally, China Alcoholic Drinks Association data shows that the bare bottle baijiu market size exceeded 150 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining overall expansion, with industry forecasts predicting the market scale could surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025. Among these, the 50-100 yuan price segment growth rate will exceed 40%, suggesting that the 50-100 yuan price point will be a battleground for liquor companies in the future.

Currently, as more participants enter the bare bottle baijiu track, bare bottle baijiu is gradually shedding its low-quality, low-price label. Cai Xuefei, an expert from the China Liquor Culture Brand Research Institute think tank, stated in an interview: "Consumers have new demands for famous liquor brands. Rational consumption, the rise of young consumer groups, and quality upgrades have jointly driven bare bottle baijiu's transformation from 'low price, low quality' to 'high cost-effectiveness,' leading to the continuous emergence of new-type bare bottle baijiu."

Regarding the development prospects of the bare bottle baijiu market, some large enterprises and authoritative industry insiders hold positive views on the domestic bare bottle baijiu market. Yanghe Co. stated that in the current context where baijiu consumption is returning to rationality and value orientation is becoming increasingly clear, bare bottle baijiu, with its core characteristics of "de-packaging and emphasizing quality perception," is experiencing sustained market expansion opportunities, with long-term growth potential worth anticipating.

Song Shuyu, Chairman of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, believes that the baijiu industry in 2025 is facing deep adjustment, with weakening demand for high-end liquor and the liquor market entering a period of stock competition. Meanwhile, consumers are entering the "three rationalities" era. Against this backdrop, products with ultimate cost-effectiveness have become a new market trend. Therefore, he emphasized: "Bare bottle baijiu is an inevitable choice for sustainable industry development."

Although the bare bottle baijiu market has broad future development space, it currently faces considerable challenges. The most prominent problem facing bare bottle baijiu is serious product homogenization. Most brands' bare bottle baijiu products in the market suffer from monotonous taste, similar packaging, outdated marketing models, and lack of innovation. The second challenge is pressure from direct-to-consumer business. Bare bottle baijiu is usually consumed individually, requiring "bottle-by-bottle" sales, which means liquor companies need to invest substantial time and resources to reach consumers through various activities.

Overall, bare bottle baijiu appears to be an unexpected "flame" that emerged during the industry winter, but it has actually ignited the fuse for a new round of structural upgrading in baijiu. When high-end products slow down and inventory accumulates, "unboxed" bare bottle baijiu has re-anchored mass consumption with ultimate cost-effectiveness and brought "subtraction" competition to the forefront.

In the next two years, whoever can first solve the homogenization problem and successfully implement refined operations directly reaching consumers (alleviating direct-to-consumer pressure) will be able to grab the largest piece of the cake in this 200 billion yuan new track. Otherwise, this flame may quickly burn out, leaving only empty bottles behind.