Under the enhanced overload control policies and automakers' efforts to combat "involution," compliant road transport capacity for automobile logistics is expected to benefit. This will further promote the transformation of automobile logistics transport structure toward "road-to-rail," "road-to-water," and multimodal transport. The research recommends Changjiu Logistics, which has sufficient compliant road transport capacity and is expected to gradually release profits, while also paying attention to China Railway Special Cargo (001213.SZ), Sanyang Ma (001317.SZ), and Haicheng Bangda (603836.SH).

**Key Investment Points**

On July 24, 2025, the Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Public Security, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly formulated the "Special Campaign Plan for Vehicle Transport Vehicles." The key tasks include: 1) Strict market access management for new vehicles; 2) Strengthened source loading supervision; 3) Enhanced road enforcement inspections; 4) Strengthened source penalties. This campaign will last for 6 months and be implemented in four phases, with the key rectification phase from September to November focusing on addressing overloading transport violations by vehicle transport vehicles.

Against the backdrop of "anti-involution," the road automobile transport industry is transitioning from price competition to high-quality development. The overload control policies accelerate industry consolidation, with compliant enterprises gaining larger market share and pricing power.

**Enforcement Significantly Strengthened Compared to 2016-2018**

This overload control campaign shows significantly enhanced enforcement compared to 2016-2018, implementing stricter penalties for violating enterprises: 1) Revoke road transport permits for vehicle transport vehicles with more than 3 overload violations within one year; 2) Order suspension of operations for drivers with more than 3 overload violations within one year; 3) Order business suspension and rectification for logistics enterprises with violating vehicles exceeding 10% of total fleet.

Clear requirements are established for compliant vehicle transport: 1) Flat-head articulated trains loading 6 vehicles or fewer; if loading 7 or more, strictly enforce length not exceeding 17.1 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, height not exceeding 4 meters; 2) Long-head articulated trains loading 7 vehicles or fewer; if loading 8 or more, strictly enforce length not exceeding 18.1 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, height not exceeding 4 meters; 3) Central axle vehicle transport vehicles loading 8 vehicles or fewer; if loading 9 or more, strictly enforce length not exceeding 22 meters, width not exceeding 2.55 meters, height not exceeding 4 meters.

**Supply-Side Contraction Expected to Boost Compliant Capacity Rates**

Supply-side contraction will impact industry structure, accelerating the elimination of small-to-medium logistics enterprises. The clearance of non-compliant vehicles is expected to boost rates for compliant capacity: 1) September-December represents the traditional peak season for automobile production and sales, making supply assurance the primary task for automakers, with relatively high acceptance of rate increases; 2) Using the 2016-2018 overload control policies as an example, the policies significantly increased Changjiu Logistics' rates, with average rates for complete vehicle transport business rising 27% in 2018 compared to 2015; 3) Rate transmission path is clear with minimal terminal perception - logistics costs typically account for less than 1% of complete vehicle cost structure, so even a 30% increase has limited impact on terminal prices; 4) In the long term, with automakers advancing anti-involution efforts, if complete vehicle price increases combine with road overload controls, rate transmission will be smoother.

**Optimizing Transport Structure and Improving Efficiency**

Overload control policies are expected to optimize automobile logistics transport structure, improve logistics efficiency, and reduce social logistics costs. Currently, China's complete vehicle transport structure is dominated by roads with rail and water as supplements - 2024 complete vehicle road shipments, rail shipments, and roll-on/roll-off transport accounted for 61.5%, 27.4%, and 11.1% respectively. Under strict overload controls, traditional road transport costs rise, driving industry transformation toward "road-to-water" and "road-to-rail," with rail and waterway transport volumes expected to increase. Multimodal transport becomes a key solution for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, accelerating optimization and upgrading of complete vehicle logistics models.

**Risk Warnings:** Rate volatility risk; automobile production and sales volume falling short of expectations risk; intensified industry competition risk.