According to a research report, new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales from January to February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year to 1.589 million units, while retail sales fell by 25.7% year-on-year to 1.06 million units. During the same period, exports of new energy passenger vehicles surged by 115% year-on-year, accounting for 48.9% of total exports. Looking ahead, rising oil prices may accelerate the global penetration of new energy vehicles as a medium-to-long-term trend. Chinese new energy vehicles are experiencing strong export growth in regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia, indicating promising future development potential. In March, both the overall passenger vehicle industry and new energy vehicle sales are expected to remain under year-on-year pressure but show sequential recovery, with new energy vehicle sales potentially turning positive year-on-year. Investors are advised to focus on interim rebound opportunities in the passenger vehicle sector, with recommendations for thematic opportunities in overseas expansion, robotics, and AIDC. Key points from the report are as follows:

Industry recent developments reference data released by the Passenger Car Association: In February, retail/wholesale/production/export figures for passenger vehicles reached 1.034 million, 1.518 million, 1.373 million, and 555,000 units respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -25.4%, -14.3%, -21.0%, and +56.0%, and month-on-month changes of -33.1%, -23.0%, -31.5%, and -4.4%. Cumulative retail/wholesale/production/export figures for passenger vehicles from January to February were 2.578 million, 3.494 million, 3.379 million, and 1.136 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of -18.9%, -9.8%, -11.8%, and +54.6%.

Domestic demand was under pressure in January-February, while new energy vehicle exports accelerated. Retail sales have been subdued since the beginning of the year, primarily due to demand being pulled forward by the phase-out of purchase tax exemptions and trade-in subsidies scheduled for the end of 2025. Passenger vehicle channel inventory decreased by 330,000 units in January-February (compared to a reduction of 120,000 units in the same period last year), as automakers proactively reduced production to manage inventory amid demand and cost pressures. New energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales from January to February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year to 1.589 million units, while retail sales fell by 25.7% year-on-year to 1.06 million units. Exports of new energy passenger vehicles surged by 115% year-on-year, accounting for 48.9% of total exports.

Looking forward, rising oil prices may drive accelerated global adoption of new energy vehicles as a medium-to-long-term trend. Chinese new energy vehicles are achieving high export growth in markets like Europe and Southeast Asia, suggesting substantial future growth potential.

Favorable catalysts have emerged since March, suggesting potential interim rebound opportunities following sector declines. In March, the overall passenger vehicle industry and new energy vehicle sales are expected to remain under year-on-year pressure but show sequential recovery, with new energy vehicle sales potentially turning positive year-on-year. Current market concerns regarding demand, costs, and profitability have not yet dissipated and require continued monitoring into the second quarter. However, given ongoing stock price corrections—with some auto stocks declining over 40%—and gradual full downward revisions to full-year profit forecasts, coupled with the密集 period for earnings, technology, and new model releases in March-April, a rebound in individual stocks is anticipated.

On March 2, XPENG-W released its VLA2.0 model, applicable in autonomous driving, Robotaxi, flying cars, and humanoid robots. On March 5, BYD COMPANY launched its second-generation blade battery and flash charging technology, addressing key challenges in pure electric vehicle energy replenishment. On March 10, NIO-SW announced its Q4 2025 results, achieving its first quarterly Non-GAAP profit turnaround driven by economies of scale and structural improvements.

Specific stock recommendations include: 1) Passenger vehicles: NIO-SW (09866), Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.,Ltd. (600418.SH), GEELY AUTO (00175), etc. 2) Commercial vehicles: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. (000951.SZ, 03808), Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. (600066.SH), Cimc Vehicles(Group)Co.,Ltd. (301039.SZ), etc. 3) Auto parts: Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002126.SZ), Feilong Auto Components Co.,Ltd. (002536.SZ), HESAI-W (02525), Tianrun Industry Technology Co.,Ltd. (002283.SZ), etc. 4) Robotics: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.,Ltd. (002050.SZ), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd. (601689.SH), Wanxiang Qianchao Co.,Ltd. (000559.SZ), etc.

Risk factors include policy subsidy effects falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, and intense industry competition.