UBS has released a research report stating that as model capabilities continue to evolve, 2026 could become a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of AI agents, at which point AI applications are expected to shift from conversation to action. However, the bank observes a divergence in application trends, with the US increasingly focusing on enterprise-level applications, while China is ramping up investment in consumer-facing services.

The report notes that major Chinese internet companies launched red envelope campaigns during the Spring Festival to drive traffic to their AI services. These included a 10 billion yuan campaign from TENCENT (00700), a 30 billion yuan campaign from BABA-W (09988), a 5 billion yuan campaign from BIDU-SW (09888), and a campaign from ByteDance. In the short term, the bank believes this will accelerate AI adoption among users, particularly in lower-tier cities, and encourage greater use of AI and intelligent agent features within these native AI applications, such as image and video generation, flash sales, and other transaction booking services.

In the long term, the bank anticipates a potential consolidation trend in China's AI chatbot market, similar to the market structure seen with ChatGPT in the US. Leveraging the vast user bases and comprehensive ecosystems of internet giants, this trend is expected to foster the emergence of consumer-oriented AI super-apps, serving as new traffic gateways in the Chinese market.

The bank recently initiated coverage on MiniMax-WP (00100), viewing the company as well-positioned to benefit from AI tailwinds in both the Chinese and global markets. The bank also suggests that the risk of AI disruption in China should be lower than in the US. Among internet giants, UBS is optimistic about the full-stack AI capabilities of BABA and BIDU, as well as the potential of TENCENT and KUAISHOU-W (01024) in the field of AI applications.