As of September 27, statistics from Enterprise Early Warning show that the scale of new local government special bonds issued during the year has exceeded 3.36 trillion yuan, completing more than 70% of the full-year quota of 4.4 trillion yuan.
Under the tone of a more proactive fiscal policy, special bonds, as a core policy tool for stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand, are taking the lead and targeting precisely, providing solid support for the smooth operation of China's economy.
Specifically, in terms of regional distribution, in the first half of the year, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Anhui, and Henan ranked among the top in issuance amounts, at approximately 513.307 billion yuan, 279.977 billion yuan, 271.900 billion yuan, 257.771 billion yuan, 190.256 billion yuan, 163.343 billion yuan, and 153.794 billion yuan, respectively.
In the first half of the year, to further activate new momentum for local development, Hebei, Jiangxi, Hubei, and Chongqing were included in the pilot scope of "self-review and self-issuance" for local government special bond projects, with special bond issuance in these four regions increasing to 147.127 billion yuan, 89.247 billion yuan, 106.735 billion yuan, and 126.504 billion yuan during the year, respectively.
In terms of fund allocation, new special bonds in the third quarter continued the pattern of the first half, mainly concentrated in three major areas: municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public welfare services, together accounting for more than 60%, while continuously expanding into areas such as land reserve and emerging industries.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, special bond issuance will usher in the final concentrated release window of the year. Industry insiders believe that funds landing intensively at this stage and forming physical工作量 in the real economy will play a supporting role for full-year growth and the start of next year.
The investment research team at Guotai Haitong Securities expects that the use of special bonds in the fourth quarter will be more flexible, and some provinces with insufficient project reserves may increase the issuance of special new special bonds.
The research team at China Chengxin International recommends further accelerating issuance and use, increasing the leverage effect of funds, improving project reserves, and strengthening full-process management; making good use of established stock policies and accelerating the progress of new special bond issuance and use, while reserving and timely introducing incremental policies as appropriate. At the same time, it is advisable to explore "negative list" management for special bonds used as project capital and the "special bond plus" model, so as to better leverage the "four ounces moving a thousand catties" effect of special bonds.
In addition, multiple industry insiders said that the phenomenon of "emphasis on issuance over management" still exists, and how to make good use of this funding is crucial. In the view of Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, strengthening full-life-cycle performance management of special bonds across regions has played a positive role in forming more physical workload in the real economy. Currently, many places are also actively exploring practices to continuously improve quality and efficiency.
For example, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Finance has continuously optimized and improved post-investment management ledgers, innovatively carried out post-investment management pilots, and clarified post-investment management responsibilities, striving to ensure that post-investment management is "clearly organized." Among these efforts, focusing on making the post-investment management ledger detailed and solid, the department expanded its content to cover project funds, construction and operations, asset recording, and other aspects, forming a detailed ledger with relatively complete information and a relatively clear base.
In terms of improving the efficiency of fund use, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Finance has also explored and innovated a "bond-loan linkage" investment and financing model, allowing eligible projects to arrange or adjust funds as project capital based on actual conditions, fully leveraging the important role of special bonds in driving and expanding effective investment. For example, for the Guangdong water resources allocation project in the Beibu Gulf Rim, 4.6 billion yuan of special bonds were arranged as project capital, effectively leveraging 21.1 billion yuan in market-based financing.
The Gansu Provincial Department of Finance has taken multiple measures to promote the quality and efficiency of bond allocation and use. For example, for regions with high debt risk levels, large temporary payment scales, and difficulty in repaying bond principal and interest, new quotas are strictly controlled, and they are limited to issuing only projects already under construction; the information system sets early warning rules for bond payments, promptly issuing warnings for irregular use and requiring correction within a deadline.
Li Xuhong, vice president of the Beijing National Accounting Institute, believes that in the future, the "self-review and self-issuance" pilot for special bonds should be continuously deepened, project reserves and financing revenue balance demonstrations should be strengthened, and funds should be ensured to flow into areas with genuine economic and social benefits. At the same time, performance management and supervisory accountability should be improved, and a full-life-cycle supervision system for special bonds should be established to prevent idle or inefficient use of funds.