Goldman Sachs: Divergent Trends in Mainland Consumption During Lunar New Year with Film Box Office Plunging 40%

Stock News
昨天

Goldman Sachs released a research report indicating that offline entertainment during the Spring Festival holiday showed divergent trends, with high-quality live content supply being the core driver of entertainment consumption. This year, tourism spending increased by 19% year-on-year, while box office performance was sluggish, reaching only 57 billion yuan, a 40% decline compared to the same period last year, returning to pre-pandemic levels. This phenomenon is attributed to the lack of high-quality film releases this year, contrasting with the 48 billion yuan box office generated by "Nezha 2" during the 2025 Spring Festival season. At the individual stock level, following recent price corrections due to concerns about AI disruption and competitive pressures, the bank observed that some companies' current share prices are approaching the lower end of their five-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio ranges. Examples include Tencent Holdings (00700) at 15 times, NetEase-S (09999) at 13 times, and Kuaishou-W (01024) at 10 times. However, high single-digit to low double-digit year-on-year growth in earnings per share is anticipated for 2026. Looking ahead, the bank believes that in the gaming sector, Tencent and NetEase's core classic games will maintain strong performance due to their enduring intellectual property advantages, supported by an increasing pipeline of new games and overseas expansion as key growth engines. Regarding the competitive landscape in the entertainment industry, Kuaishou and Bilibili-W (09626) possess solid business fundamentals and AI potential, while the music and live-streaming sectors face more intense competition.

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