The recent weather in the Jinshan area has been a pleasant surprise for locals. Many have noted that mornings are no longer dominated by scorching heat, and evenings bring a welcome coolness, signaling the arrival of autumn. One curious question on everyone's mind is whether to wear short sleeves or long sleeves in these conditions.
As of today, September 18th, the weather remains comfortable, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and possible brief showers in some areas. Temperatures are expected to range between 17°C and 30°C throughout the day. The weekend is projected to continue with cloudy conditions, offering a refreshing and cool feeling in the mornings and evenings. However, it's wise not to get too comfortable, as intermittent rain may appear next week. Are your Mid-Autumn Festival travel plans ready?
Looking at the weather trend for next week, conditions will be relatively stable, mainly featuring cloudy skies. Influenced by a short-wave trough, there may be occasional light rainfall, with overall temperatures ranging from 18°C to 31°C. Mornings and evenings will be slightly cool, while the summer heat lingers during the midday hours. It's advisable to keep an eye on the latest weather updates for laundry and outdoor activities.
In terms of typhoon activity, the 25th typhoon of the year, Dujuan (a severe tropical storm), formed over the northwest Pacific Ocean on the evening of September 16th. As of 8 a.m. today, it was located approximately 1,260 kilometers south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan, with maximum wind speeds of 10 levels near its center and a central pressure of 982 hPa. Dujuan is expected to move west-northwest at a speed of 25-30 kilometers per hour, gradually strengthening, but it is forecast to have no impact on China's coastal areas.
A newly formed super El Ni帽o event is anticipated to reach its peak intensity soon. According to the latest monitoring by the National Climate Center, the current El Ni帽o phenomenon is set to become a "super" event due to an unusually large warming of sea surface temperatures. The impact of this super El Ni帽o event is expected to persist until the summer of 2027.
El Ni帽o is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts about 9 to 12 months. The National Climate Center uses the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Ni帽o3.4 region as an indicator to analyze the occurrence, development, and intensity of El Ni帽o/La Ni帽a events. An El Ni帽o event is confirmed when the 3-month moving average index reaches or exceeds 0.5掳C for at least five consecutive months.
The intensity of an El Ni帽o event is classified according to national standards: weak events peak between 0.5掳C and 1.3掳C, moderate events between 1.3掳C and 2.0掳C, strong events between 2.0掳C and 2.5掳C, and super events at or above 2.5掳C. In July, the sea surface temperature index in the El Ni帽o monitoring region reached 2.09掳C, and in August, it averaged 2.59掳C, both the highest for the same period since 1951. The sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue rising with fluctuations, potentially peaking around November-December. This could lead to the formation of a super El Ni帽o event, with a peak intensity exceeding 2.5掳C, potentially surpassing the previous three super events, making it the strongest ever recorded. This event is notable for its rapid development, high intensity, and significant climate impacts.
The impact of a super El Ni帽o on global climate is substantial, increasing the probability of extreme weather events in some regions. During El Ni帽o years, northern Peru and Ecuador often experience heavy rainfall and flooding, while Indonesia, eastern Australia, and southeastern Africa tend to face droughts. In the mature phase of El Ni帽o during winter, Canada and the northern United States are typically warmer than usual, while the southern U.S. often sees more precipitation. For China, the winter of an El Ni帽o mature phase usually brings overall warmer conditions, but with noticeable temperature fluctuations within the season. In the following summer, the Yangtze River basin and Jiangnan region are prone to flooding. Additionally, in the spring and summer after an El Ni帽o year, the number of typhoons generated in the northwest Pacific tends to be lower than average. The years 1998, 2016, and 2024 were all El Ni帽o aftermath years, significantly impacting summer rainfall patterns, particularly near the Yangtze River.
The current super El Ni帽o is already affecting China's climate. Driven by the rapid development of El Ni帽o, the summer of 2026 exhibited distinct climate anomalies, with the central and eastern regions experiencing more flooding than drought. The rainfall distribution showed a pattern of "more in the north and south, less in the middle," with widespread and intense rainstorms that overlapped in areas, leading to compounded disasters. Typhoon activity was also frequent and intense, with prolonged impacts from wind and rain. As we move into autumn, the El Ni帽o event will continue to influence temperatures and precipitation in China. It is forecasted that most areas along the Yangtze River and to the south will see above-average rainfall, particularly in Jiangnan and the eastern parts of southwest China, with a high likelihood of extreme precipitation events. Temperatures in the eastern southwest and southern China may be noticeably higher, with periodic heatwaves expected in September.
During winter, the impact of El Ni帽o on precipitation is expected to intensify, with most southern regions experiencing above-average rainfall. While winter temperatures will generally be warmer, there will be frequent cold spells and significant temperature swings. The summer of 2027 is expected to see even more pronounced El Ni帽o impacts. The central and eastern regions of China will likely receive above-average precipitation, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding, potentially leading to severe flood conditions. Additionally, heatwaves in the Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China regions will become more intense.
To address these challenges, experts highlight the need for proactive preparations. The fast-developing El Ni帽o affects global ocean-atmosphere systems through various mechanisms, impacting weather and climate in China and worldwide. Key sectors such as agriculture, power, infrastructure, and transportation will be significantly affected. In the spring and summer of 2027, as El Ni帽o weakens and ends, major grain-producing areas in northeast and north China should be wary of heavy rainfall and flooding risks. Regions like most of northwest China and Xinjiang need to prepare for droughts due to high temperatures and low rainfall. It's also crucial to guard against large-scale pest outbreaks triggered by warm winters and abnormal temperature-humidity conditions. Given the impact on hydropower-dependent regions, strengthening grid peak-shaving and energy reserves is necessary. Enhancing reservoir joint dispatch in key river basins and improving flood control capabilities of critical infrastructure are essential steps.
To mitigate the risks of extreme precipitation leading to urban waterlogging, mountain torrents, landslides, and debris flows, as well as potential disruptions like railway suspensions, highway closures, port shutdowns, and flight delays, we should focus on enhancing urban resilience and infrastructure disaster-prevention capabilities. This includes improving drainage systems in cities, underground spaces, and subways, while ports, airports, and high-speed rail systems need to refine emergency plans for extreme weather to ensure continuity. Since El Ni帽o can also indirectly affect China's fishery and grain-oil industries through global supply chains and markets, establishing a comprehensive response mechanism—from pre-production forecasting, in-production management, to post-production reserves—is vital. It's important neither to overstate nor underestimate the potential risks.
The World Meteorological Organization has also indicated in its latest bulletin that, driven by unusually warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, El Ni帽o is expected to strengthen into a super event within months, likely peaking by the end of the year. There is a near 100% probability that it will persist until February 2027. This super El Ni帽o event will increase the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric circulation across many parts of the globe. However, it's important to note that the intensity of El Ni帽o alone does not determine the severity of its impact on any single country or region, as effects vary by location, season, and other climate drivers. Therefore, from a practical disaster reduction perspective, the focus should be on managing the risks posed by extreme weather events altered by El Ni帽o.
In the coming period, China will face a complex situation with multiple intertwined risks stemming from the El Ni帽o event. Against the backdrop of global warming, El Ni帽o adds an extra layer of warming, increasing the frequency of heatwaves, making precipitation patterns more uneven, and potentially altering typhoon activity characteristics. The National Climate Center has been continuously strengthening dynamic monitoring and rolling forecasts, closely tracking the development of the El Ni帽o event. They are conducting retrospective analyses and predictive assessments regarding its climate impacts and potential derivative meteorological disaster risks. In facing El Ni帽o, it is essential to be well-prepared based on real-time monitoring and dynamic predictions, with a scientific understanding and proactive measures.