According to reports, BOCOM International maintains a leading rating for the securities industry. The firm believes that the securities sector currently offers high investment value, with short-term market sentiment fluctuations providing investment opportunities. Top brokerage firms are expected to benefit significantly from a favorable market environment, and the firm maintains buy ratings for 中信證券(06030), 華泰證券(06886), and 中金公司(03908). The firm forecasts that profits for listed brokerages in Q3 will increase by 20% quarter-on-quarter and maintain a year-on-year growth rate of over 50%. In the first half of the year, listed brokerages' profits rose by 51.5% year-on-year (with Guotai Junan's net profit excluding non-recurring items), with first and second quarter growth rates of 53% and 50%, respectively. For Q3, it is expected that profits will rise by 20% quarter-on-quarter and by 51% year-on-year, leading to an approximate 51% year-on-year growth in profits over the first three quarters. The firm anticipates an accelerated growth in brokerage revenue from a low base compared to the first half of the year. The average daily transaction amount in the A-share market for the first three quarters was 1.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 104.6%, with growth accelerating by 45.8 percentage points compared to the first half, where the first and second quarters experienced growth rates of 68.7% and 48.9%, respectively, and a remarkable 208.8% year-on-year increase in Q3 from a low base. The report states that the amount of IPO fundraising has significantly improved year-on-year compared to the first half of the year, with A-share IPO fundraising reaching 77.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 62% increase (compared to a 15% growth rate in the first half); the total amount of equity fundraising was 896.2 billion yuan (including directed issuance financing of 520 billion yuan from four state-owned banks in June), marking an increase of 3.4 times year-on-year. Excluding the directed issuance by state-owned banks, the figure stands at 376.2 billion yuan, showing an 84% year-on-year increase. According to the ranking by A-share IPO underwriting amounts, Zhongjin, Guotai Junan, and Huatai ranked in the top three; in terms of Hong Kong stock underwriting amounts, Zhongjin significantly leads its peers. The firm notes that the A-share market experienced significant growth in Q3, with self-operated investment income expected to show high growth year-on-year, continuing to be the main driver of brokerage profit growth. From the index performance, the first half of the year showed overall stability, while Q3 saw a considerable increase. The CSI 300 index rose by 17.9% in the first three quarters, closely mirroring last year's growth rate, although mid- and small-cap indices outperformed last year, especially with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices rising over 50%. In terms of valuations, the price-to-book ratio of the A-share securities industry index is 1.45 times, situated at the 44th percentile of the past 10 years, still below the median of 1.51 times. The firm believes that the current valuation of the securities sector is still relatively low, while Q3 profits are expected to remain at a high level, with strong performance growth likely to support further valuation uplifts.
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