During the Spring Festival period, international geopolitical tensions escalated again, drawing safe-haven and hedging capital back to the gold market. Despite persistently high short-term volatility, market buying interest remained strong due to event-driven factors.
From a market perspective, between February 14 and February 28, the gold market continued to rise despite facing volatility exceeding 30%, primarily driven by rapidly intensifying conflicts in the Middle East. Military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have escalated from "shadow conflicts" to open military strikes. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, and shipping companies' decisions to reroute are pushing geopolitical premiums from the financial sector into the real economy. The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased gold's allocation weight as a safe-haven asset. If oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, reigniting inflation expectations, stagflation-driven trading could further strengthen the upward trend in precious metals.
From a marginal perspective, COMEX options and SPDR ETF volatility remain high at around 35%, but domestic gold ETF and futures holdings have shown relatively subdued interest, possibly due to reduced positioning activity during the Spring Festival holiday. This suggests that Asian markets may continue to provide momentum for precious metals in the near term.
However, the trajectory of macroeconomic and geopolitical events is difficult to predict, and fluctuations are common. Under high volatility, gold may experience rapid corrections and repricing. In the short term, the key factors remain geopolitical developments and energy-driven inflation expectations, while the long-term outlook is influenced by global de-dollarization trends, central bank gold purchases, and shifts in U.S. trade policies. Investors are advised to adopt a strategic allocation approach rather than overreacting to short-term sentiment.
In terms of recent market developments, the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. On February 28, the two countries conducted a joint military strike with efficiency exceeding market expectations, resulting in the deaths of several Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has vowed severe retaliation.
Some U.S. economic data for February exceeded expectations. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index reached 91.2, significantly better than the forecast of 87 and higher than the previous reading of 89. The Producer Price Index rose 2.9% year-on-year in January, beating expectations of 2.6% but lower than the previous 3%.
Financial conditions in Europe and the U.S. have marginally deteriorated. Due to restrictions on redemptions by private credit firms and rating downgrades, liquidity conditions have tightened compared to several weeks ago.
Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its feeder funds (002610, 002611) track the performance of RMB-denominated gold prices by investing in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Investors can purchase feeder funds through official channels such as the Bosera Fund app and website, with a minimum investment of 1 yuan (subject to specific channel announcements). These funds provide investors with diversified ways to invest in gold.
Risk Warning: Recent gold price fluctuations have been significant. Investors should fully understand the risks involved in gold fund investments and make prudent decisions based on their risk tolerance. It is also important to stay informed about global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical developments, and related dynamics.
Specific Risk Warning: This fund is a gold index fund, with over 90% of its assets invested in domestic gold spot contracts. Gold spot contracts differ from stocks and bonds, and their risk-return profile is distinct from equity funds, hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. The fund's risk-return characteristics are similar to those of domestic gold spot prices. As a gold index fund, its performance is highly correlated with gold prices, and investors bear the risks associated with gold price fluctuations. Investors should be aware of the specific risks of gold-themed funds, such as gold market volatility, deviations between fund returns and domestic gold spot price returns, and risks related to investments in the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot market.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials, and the company makes no guarantee regarding its accuracy or completeness. Under no circumstances shall the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute actual investment results or investment advice to investors.
Unless otherwise stated, data in this report are sourced from Wind, Bloomberg, or Bosera Fund. This report is the property of Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd. Investing involves risks; please choose carefully.
Bosera Gold ETF and feeder funds carry a medium risk rating.
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Fifth, Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its feeder funds (002610, 002611) are established in accordance with relevant laws and regulations and registered with the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The fund contract, prospectus, and product summary are disclosed on the CSRC fund disclosure website and the fund manager's website. CSRC registration does not indicate a judgment or guarantee of the fund's investment value, market prospects, or returns, nor does it imply that investing in the fund is risk-free.