Bitcoin has bounced back above the $81,000 mark, although options traders are not anticipating a decisive breakout despite improved macro sentiment following remarks from Wallerstein. Bullish and bearish positions are starting to diverge at key resistance levels, while the spot market is undergoing a structural shift from short covering to broader demand expansion.
After U.S.-based Bitcoin-related funds attracted $3.5 billion in August, marking their best monthly performance since September 2025, fresh ETF inflows this week have further confirmed this trend. Exchange activity has spiked sharply as Bitcoin recovers near the $80,000 level. Data tracked by Woofun AI shows daily spot trading volume monitored by CryptoQuant has grown three to four times from early August lows, with Binance recording the largest increase, while Coinbase (COIN.US) and MEXC have also seen simultaneous gains.
Whale activity has intensified notably, with Bitcoin flows into exchanges exceeding 2,000 coins per hour on multiple occasions. The average deposit size on Binance has climbed from 20-30 coins to over 50 coins, reaching as high as 75 coins. While such flows may include sell-side preparations, combined with altcoin seven-day cumulative deposit volumes rising from 15,000 to 45,000 transactions, along with gains exceeding 5% in Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana, and surges of more than 10% in Zcash and Cardano, the foundation of this rebound appears more solid than the initial phase.
Thursday saw ETF inflows of $730.9 million, reversing the $236 million outflow recorded earlier in the week, signaling strengthening buyer conviction. However, the derivatives market presents a significant barrier. Friday marks the expiry of $2.39 billion worth of Bitcoin options across 29,600 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.65 and the maximum pain threshold set at $73,000. These expiring contracts represent only 7% of total open interest, with the majority of positions remaining unchanged.
Greeks.live analysis indicates that traders have been selling call options with strike prices above $80,000, creating concentrated gamma risk, while put gamma risk remains minimal. If prices continue to rise, hedging adjustments by option sellers could exert additional pressure at key strike levels. Bitcoin previously touched a high of $81,400 on August 28 before retreating to a range between $76,000 and $81,000. The 365-day moving average calculated by CryptoQuant stands at $82,300, serving as a critical benchmark for assessing long-term bull market strength.
On the volatility front, monthly realized volatility sits at approximately 40% this week, while monthly implied volatility has declined to 36%. The 15-day volatility risk premium recovered from negative 16% to negative 6% on Thursday, still far below last month's peak of 15%. This suggests actual price movements have been more dramatic than options indicate, yet the market still anticipates consolidation between $80,000 and $83,000 rather than an immediate sharp move.
The key to a breakout lies in the interplay between macro variables and buyer persistence. While the current rebound has a firmer foundation than the first wave, momentum from short position unwinding is fading, and reliance on new buyers absorbing supply at higher levels is growing. Thursday's $730.9 million inflow is constructive, but against the backdrop of this week's earlier $236 million outflow, it may not yet constitute sustained institutional buying. Bitcoin needs to break through the long-term resistance at $82,300 and the call option pressure above $80,000, all while facing lower volatility expectations in the options market.
The positive impact from Wallerstein remains highly dependent on forthcoming inflation data. If data comes in better than expected, it could quickly trigger tightening expectations, reversing the accommodative financial conditions. Whether Bitcoin can achieve a sustained push toward the $83,000 target ultimately hinges on the durability of ETF demand and buyer resilience amid ongoing volatility—another critical test for the market following the earlier rebound.