On August 26, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kazakhstan's per capita GDP is expected to reach a historic high of $14,770 this year, exceeding Russia's $14,260. Moneta Markets Forex believes this data highlights Kazakhstan's robust economic growth over the past twenty-five years, driven by oil, gas, and mineral resources, while demonstrating its leading position among post-Soviet states, trailing only the Baltic countries and surpassing some major Asian economies.

The latest data shows Kazakhstan's economy has demonstrated strong resilience following the pandemic, with economic growth reaching 6.2% in the first half of this year. Transportation and construction sectors performed particularly well. Moneta Markets Forex states this allows Kazakhstan to maintain a clear lead among Central Asian nations, with the IMF projecting Turkmenistan's per capita GDP at $13,340, Uzbekistan at $3,510, Kyrgyzstan at $2,750, and Tajikistan at $1,430. Nevertheless, World Bank data indicates Kazakhstan still lags behind Russia by approximately $800, while in terms of purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP, Russia still leads Kazakhstan with $49,380 versus $44,450. This suggests Kazakhstan residents have higher savings, but slightly lower consumer purchasing power.

One key factor in Kazakhstan's overtaking of Russia lies in its economy remaining unaffected by sanctions. As Europe shifted substantial crude oil imports from Russia to Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan has been able to sell crude oil at market prices, while Russian oil prices remain subject to price caps. Additionally, Moneta Markets Forex believes the war has driven investment in Central Asia's "Middle Corridor," with many international companies relocating distribution operations from Russia to Kazakhstan to avoid sanctions risks.

However, Moneta Markets Forex reminds investors of potential risks. Declining oil prices could pressure Kazakhstan's economy, with Brent crude prices falling from $76 in August 2024 to $66 this month, while OPEC+ plans to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. According to ING Groep NV data, every $1 decline in oil prices costs Kazakhstan approximately $570 million. Last year, Kazakhstan's fiscal deficit reached $7.7 billion, while inflation remains high at 10%.

Overall, despite oil price volatility and inflationary pressures, Kazakhstan's economy continues to demonstrate steady growth. The IMF projects Kazakhstan's economic growth will reach 5% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, while Russia is expected to grow at only about 1%. Moneta Markets Forex believes that under these circumstances, Kazakhstan's likelihood of maintaining its leading position remains high, and investors can continue monitoring its macroeconomic and foreign exchange trends.