U.S. consumers spent $8.6 billion online during "Black Friday," driven by a shift toward laptops and mobile shopping over braving cold weather for in-store deals, according to Adobe Analytics. The data unit of Adobe (ADBE.US) tracked over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, revealing a 9.4% year-over-year increase in online spending by 6:30 PM ET on Friday.

Initially, a surge in physical store traffic was expected. However, shopping enthusiasm cooled by Thanksgiving morning as consumers grappled with persistent inflation, trade policy uncertainties, and a softening labor market. Adobe Analytics projects final "Black Friday" online sales to reach $11.7–$11.9 billion, setting a new record. With discounts remaining steep, Saturday and Sunday spending is forecast at $5.5 billion (+3.8% YoY) and $5.9 billion (+5.4% YoY), respectively. "Cyber Monday" is predicted to dominate the quarter with $14.2 billion in sales (+6.3% YoY).

**Holiday Shopping Season Begins Amid Economic Jitters** The U.S. holiday shopping season kicked off Friday, but consumers face mounting concerns—cooling employment, stagnant wages, high inflation, and looming tariff ripple effects. "Black Friday" serves as a litmus test: Will spending defy economic headwinds, or signal fatigue in the consumption-driven economy?

Signs point to a more measured season. Circana forecasts flat total spending YoY, with unit sales potentially dropping 2.5%—meaning consumers pay more for fewer items. "This won’t be a blockbuster holiday," said Marshal Cohen, Circana’s chief retail advisor. "Fewer gifts will fill the tree."

While the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects a record 187 million shoppers (over half the U.S. population), Deloitte reports average planned spending fell 4% to $622. Rising costs and financial constraints are key reasons for belt-tightening. Accenture’s survey notes projected spending growth "reflects higher prices, not confidence."

Retailers, which rely on November-December for 20% of annual sales, now compete for price-sensitive, anxious shoppers. Even high earners (top 10% by income) are selective—some plan to use "Black Friday" for essentials, not splurges. Meanwhile, tariffs limit brands’ ability to offer deep discounts, and in-store shoppers may face longer lines with seasonal hiring at 2009 lows.

**Mixed Signals in Consumer Resilience** Despite macroeconomic turbulence, U.S. spending has held steady. Early-year tariff stockpiling and a strong stock market buoyed sales. Retailers report stable habits and milder-than-expected tariff impacts.

Yet warning signs emerge: Low-income cutbacks, a seven-month plunge in November consumer sentiment, and slowed September retail sales growth. Target’s (TGT.US) Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez cited three-year-low morale over jobs, affordability, and tariffs. NRF data shows 85% expect tariffs to hike gift prices, with some accelerating purchases of at-risk items, per Jessica Ramírez of Consumer Collective.

With pre-holiday deals like Amazon Prime Day diluting "Black Friday’s" prominence, Kearney’s Michael Brown notes tariff fears amplified this trend, potentially dampening overall holiday sales. NRF projects November-December growth will ease to 3.7%–4.2% (vs. 2024’s 4.3%), though total sales may surpass $1 trillion for the first time.