Here is a look at the major financial events for the week of October 5 to October 11, all times listed in Beijing time.

Monetary Policy and US Treasury Auctions

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting will be released on October 8. Bloomberg expects that "almost everyone" supported at least one more rate hike this year, while internal divisions and Warsh's proposal to reduce the number of regular meetings are also drawing attention. At the same time, $39 billion in 10-year notes and $22 billion in 30-year bonds will be auctioned in the same week, and the strength of demand will directly test the market's tolerance for high interest rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a keynote speech on Monday, and his wording will affect the yen and the direction of global carry trades.

Geopolitical Risks and Energy Competition

Trump has warned that Iran is "in bad shape," and core members of the US cabinet have held intensive meetings. Conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues, and the G7 has announced the release of strategic oil reserves to calm prices, leaving the energy market highly sensitive.

Signals from the AI Supply Chain

The World AI Summit will bring together executives from giants such as OpenAI and Nvidia. AMD's Lisa Su will visit South Korea to connect with the chip ecosystem. Intel has announced price increases, and a new computing power futures product will be launched. The Nobel Prizes will be revealed over five consecutive days and may provide thematic catalysts for the healthcare, physics, and chemistry sectors.

Economic Indicators

China's foreign exchange reserves for September will be released on October 7. The balance at the end of August was $3.43833 trillion. In August, China's central bank had already increased its gold holdings for 22 consecutive months.

On October 5, the US ISM will release the September non-manufacturing index, with the previous reading at 55.4. According to a Wall Street Journal survey, the median forecast of economists is for a decline to 55.0. The focus will be on the new orders, employment, and prices sub-indexes.

Financial Events

Attention continues to focus on the US-Iran situation, with Trump saying that progress on the next step toward Iran is "going well." According to a US media report cited by Xinhua on October 2, US President Trump said that day that the next step toward Iran was "going well" and that "Iran's situation is bad." The report also said that "core cabinet members" of the US government held a closed-door meeting lasting several hours that day to discuss the Iran conflict and the next steps regarding Saudi Arabia's conflict with Yemen's Houthi armed group.

Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces plan a large-scale offensive against the Houthis; the Houthis say they struck Saudi Aramco targets. On October 2 local time, a CCTV reporter learned that two US officials said Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are planning to launch a large-scale strike against the Houthis in the coming days. In addition, Yemen's Houthi armed group said in a statement on the evening of October 3 local time that in response to Saudi air strikes on Sanaa and other parts of Yemen, the Houthis used multiple ballistic missiles and drones that day to strike Aramco targets in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.

The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, with large-scale diesel releases in the first 20 days. On Friday, October 2 local time, a G7 leaders' statement released by the French presidential office said the G7 would coordinate the release of 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves through the International Energy Agency, with the action to begin "immediately" and last for four months. During that period, G7 members and partners will first release diesel reserves on a large scale within the initial 20 days.

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. On October 8, the minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting will be published. Bloomberg expects that "almost everyone" believed at least one more rate hike was needed this year, while "several" favored two. The minutes are expected to update two topics: progress on the balance sheet review and Chairman Warsh's proposal to reduce the annual FOMC meetings from eight to six.

Federal Reserve officials including Bowman and Logan will speak. From October 6 to 10, Fed Governor Bowman, Dallas Fed President Logan, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, and Boston Fed President Collins will speak successively. Bowman leans toward no further rate hikes this year, putting her at odds with Williams' view that "one more hike this year is reasonable."

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech. According to reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has confirmed that he will attend the National Securities Convention on October 6 and deliver a keynote speech there. The speech is drawing close market attention, and he is expected to discuss current monetary policy, inflation trends, and the economic outlook.

World Summit AI

The 10th World Summit AI will be held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, from October 7 to 8, 2026. Speakers include executives from giants such as OpenAI, Meta, Google, and Nvidia.

US 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Auctions

On October 7, US Eastern Time, the US will auction 10-year Treasury notes. The size is $39 billion; the security is a 10-year note maturing on August 15, 2036, with a coupon of 4.625%, or 4-5/8%. On October 8, the US will auction 30-year Treasury bonds. The size is $22 billion; the security is a 30-year bond maturing on August 15, 2056, with a coupon of 5.125%, or 5-1/8%.

2026 Nobel Prizes in Physics, Chemistry, Literature, and Others Announced

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will be announced by the Karolinska Institute on Monday, October 5, at 17:30 Beijing time. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Tuesday, October 6, at 17:45 Beijing time. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Wednesday, October 7, at 17:45 Beijing time. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on Thursday, October 8, at 19:00 Beijing time. The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, October 9, at 17:00 Beijing time.

SSE STAR Photovoltaic Leading Index Officially Released

The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index will officially release the SSE STAR Photovoltaic Leading Index on October 9. According to a China Securities Index announcement, it will select 40 STAR Market and main board securities in the photovoltaic sector and increase the weighting of the STAR Market, providing a new investment target for the photovoltaic sector.

CME to Launch GPU Computing Power Futures Tracking H100 and B200 Rental Costs

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Silicon Data have set October 5 for the launch of computing power futures. The two contracts are the Silicon Data H100 Rental Index Futures and the Silicon Data B200 Rental Index Futures, which will track indexes measuring the hourly rental cost of GPUs.

AMD's Lisa Su Plans to Visit South Korea and Attend a Seoul Industry Conference on October 8

On September 30, Yonhap News Agency cited industry sources as saying that AMD CEO Lisa Su is expected to visit South Korea next month to meet with executives of South Korean semiconductor companies and government officials. This will be her second visit in about seven months after her trip in March this year. South Korean government and semiconductor industry sources said all parties are considering holding a meeting in Seoul on October 8, which Lisa Su will attend. The chief executives of major South Korean AI chip companies such as Rebellions, FuriosaAI, and Mobilint are expected to attend.

OpenAI Establishes an Australian AI Cyber Risk Working Group, Chief Strategy Officer to Visit Sydney on October 6

OpenAI has established an Australian AI cyber risk working group, and its chief strategy officer will visit Sydney on October 6, continuing its overseas expansion in AI governance and regulatory cooperation. After moves in Europe and the US, this step into Asia-Pacific reflects the proactive stance of large model companies on security compliance, with attention on its demonstration effect for Australia's AI regulatory framework. On AI large model developments, StepFun is expected to officially open source Step5 Preview on October 15; Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 may launch as early as October, supporting a one-million-token context and three levels of reasoning intensity. The focus is on direct competition among domestic models in long context and reasoning costs.

Brazil Holds the First Round of Its Presidential Election

The first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half the vote, a runoff will be held on October 25. Before the election, Lula's team accused the US of interfering in the election and applied for a judicial investigation. Prediction markets give Flavio about a 60% chance of winning. If he wins, momentum for fiscal reform will increase significantly. Wall Street investment banks are using options to bet on a stronger real to capture possible appreciation after the election.

South Korea Plans to Launch the Nuri Rocket

According to Yonhap, South Korea plans to launch the Nuri rocket on October 7.

Earnings and Company Developments

Intel's PC CPUs are expected to raise prices by about 10% again on October 5. Intel's PC CPUs are expected to raise prices by about 10% again on October 5, 2026. This is already Intel's third round of price increases since the end of 2025: about 10% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another increase in July for some consumer and server CPUs, with increases ranging from tens of dollars to more than $1,000.

Zhongji Innolight: total cash dividend for A shares in the half-year period is 1.331 billion yuan, with the record date on October 9. Zhongji Innolight announced that the company will implement its 2026 half-year A-share equity distribution. Based on the total A-share capital of 1.110 billion shares after excluding shares in the repurchase account, it will distribute a cash dividend of 12 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, including tax, for a total cash dividend of 1.331 billion yuan, including tax. The record date is October 9, 2026, and the ex-rights and ex-dividend date is October 12, 2026.

Moderna to Be Added to the Nasdaq 100 Index

Moderna will become a constituent of the Nasdaq 100 Index before the market opens on Friday, October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.

Major Warnings for the Following Week

On October 14, Anthropic is expected to hold a Pre-IPO investor day with potential investors. Tesla's Roadster event has been rescheduled to October 15. On October 13, the UK Parliament will hold an AI safety hearing, with Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic invited to attend. On October 12, the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced.