From panoramic camera leader to "most bearish stock," it took Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) just one year.

In September 2026, the company's stock price fell for 10 consecutive trading days, once hitting a low of 92.08 yuan per share. Although it subsequently rebounded slightly, it still hovered below 100 yuan, plunging more than 70% from its peak of 377.04 yuan per share, with this year's decline alone reaching 61.3%. As of press time, the company's stock price hit a new low of 90.76 yuan per share, with the latest market value shrinking to only 36.403 billion yuan, evaporating over 100 billion yuan compared to early September 2025.

The capital market "voted with its feet," and the trigger was an interim report showing revenue growth without profit growth. The earnings announcement showed that Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) achieved total revenue of 5.517 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%; however, net profit attributable to shareholders was only 30.4073 million yuan, a sharp drop of 94.2% compared to the same period in 2025; net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses even turned from profit to loss, recording -15.3392 million yuan.

By quarter, Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) saw second-quarter revenue grow 31.1% year-on-year to 3.035 billion yuan, far below the 83.1% growth rate in the first quarter; gross margin fell to 38.3%, down 12 percentage points year-on-year and 7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net loss attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 77.5941 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 62.2550 million yuan in the first quarter, marking the company's first quarterly loss since going public.

Chip Price Surge "Crashes" Performance, 6.2 Billion Yuan Inventory Impairment Risk Looms

The first "straw" that crushed profits was upstream chip price increases. The explosion in AI computing power demand, on one hand, drove the memory chip industry collectively into an upward cycle, and on the other hand, major manufacturers' production capacity became highly focused on high-bandwidth memory HBM (standard for AI chips), causing tight supply of traditional memory chips. Wall Street investment bank Wedbush predicted that in the first half of 2026, DRAM and NAND memory prices are both expected to reach "triple-digit" increases, with DRAM prices potentially rising 130%-150%. As mainstream DRAM types, DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 prices increased by 132%, 540%, and 258% respectively compared to 2025.

Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) explained in its earnings announcement that due to fluctuations in global memory chip supply and demand, prices of DDR and other memory chips continued to rise and remain at high levels, causing core raw material procurement costs to continuously climb. During the reporting period, the company's operating costs were approximately 3.231 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 80.5%, exceeding the revenue growth rate by 30 percentage points. Among them, consumer-grade smart imaging equipment, which contributed over 80% of total revenue, saw operating costs significantly increase by 84.0% year-on-year. Although the company's overall gross profit in absolute terms increased by 405 million yuan, the comprehensive gross margin fell from 51.2% in the first half of 2025 to 41.4%, a cumulative decrease of nearly 15 percentage points compared to the 2023 peak.

Meanwhile, in response to the price surge, Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) spent nearly 2 billion yuan on strategic procurement of memory chips in the first half. As of June 30, 2026, the company's book inventory balance reached 6.212 billion yuan, surging 112.8% from the beginning of the period, with a year-on-year increase of 314.1%. Inventory as a proportion of current assets rose to 48.2%, an increase of nearly 26 percentage points within one year. Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) specifically noted that the book balance of memory chip inventory during the reporting period totaled 1.748 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 28.0% of inventory scale.

The direct consequence of the rather aggressive forward stocking strategy was a sharp deterioration in cash flow. From January to June 2026, the company's net cash outflow from operating activities was 2.761 billion yuan, compared to a net inflow of 241 million yuan in the first half of 2025. As of the end of the reporting period, Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) had monetary funds of approximately 1.462 billion yuan, nearly flat compared to the end of 2025, but short-term borrowings had exceeded 1 billion yuan, a 106-fold increase year-on-year, with the company's current ratio and quick ratio dropping to 1.97 and 1.02 respectively.

More worrying is whether Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) can digest such a massive inventory within the cycle. A recent report by TrendForce showed that the average DRAM spot price in August 2026 was $42.90, up only 0.7% month-on-month, with third-quarter trading volume expected to be at a low level, and the price momentum significantly slowing compared to the first half, with DDR4 price increases potentially narrowing first. Morgan Stanley also predicted that consumer-grade DRAM contract price growth will decline at year-end. This means that Arashi Vision Inc.'s (SHA: 688775) high-level stocking may face the risk of backfiring, and once memory chip prices fall or product sales underperform expectations, the company will face large inventory impairments.

Red Ocean "Battle" Drives Up All Three Expenses, 10 Billion Yuan Lock-up Expiry Sees Founder and Institutions Cash Out

Intensifying competition in downstream markets is also squeezing profit margins from the other end. IDC data showed that in the first quarter of 2026, global handheld smart imaging market shipments totaled 4.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with sales exceeding 10.5 billion yuan, up approximately 20% year-on-year. Among them, DJI shipped approximately 2.7 million units, ranking first with a 65% market share. Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) followed closely, shipping approximately 900,000 units with a 22% market share, a gap of over 40 percentage points between the two.

In the panoramic camera segment, although Arashi Vision Inc.'s (SHA: 688775) market share ranks first globally at 71%, DJI's competing product Osmo 360, launched only in July 2025, has already captured 17.1% of the market (Q3 2025 data). RUNTO Technology data showed that in the first 6 weeks of 2026, DJI's panoramic action cameras accounted for approximately 45.1% of online sales in the domestic market, which to some extent indicates that Arashi Vision Inc.'s (SHA: 688775) leading position in its "big single product" is being shaken.

Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) also passively defended itself by "invading" DJI's territory. In July 2025, the company released the panoramic drone Antigravity, with a standard version official price of 6,799 yuan; in June 2026, the first dual-camera handheld gimbal camera series Luna Ultra was launched, targeting DJI's Osmo Pocket gimbal camera. Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) admitted in its earnings announcement that new product categories are still in the market education phase, with high investments in research and development, production line construction, and market channel expansion, and without achieving economies of scale, the phased investment in new businesses has had a negative impact on profits.

Furthermore, during the reporting period, the company's sales expenses increased 62.0% year-on-year to 1.017 billion yuan, with market promotion fees notably increasing 68.3% compared to the same period in 2025; management expenses were approximately 249 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.7%, with intermediary service fees paid increasing 165.1%. According to the announcement, the company has at least 4 patent disputes with DJI, with cumulative litigation amounts of 65.8 million yuan; research and development expenses reached 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 79.3%, with material requisition, technical service fees, and depreciation and amortization expenses increasing by 115.4%, 81.4%, and 81.9% respectively. The three expenses totaled 2.273 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 99.4% of gross profit for the period, nearly devouring all book profits.

On June 11, on the first anniversary of its listing, Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) welcomed the unlocking of 227 million shares of IPO restricted shares, accounting for approximately 56.5% of total share capital. If simply calculated at the closing price of 163.40 yuan per share that day, the corresponding market value exceeded 35 billion yuan, and the tradable float expanded nearly 8 times. Public reports showed that in the three trading days after the unlock, Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) had block trades totaling 3.5294 million shares, with a transaction value of 529 million yuan. However, the company's major pre-IPO shareholders IDG Capital, Qiming Venture Partners, Xunlei Network, Huajin Capital, CITIC Securities and other institutions have not yet reduced their holdings.

According to the interim report, only Xiamen Fukai Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership) (referred to as: Xiamen Fukai) reduced 666,600 shares, and China Merchants Capital's fund Shenzhen Yidun Media Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (referred to as: Yidun Media) saw its shareholding drop from 9.765 million shares to 8.2563 million shares. If estimated at the average transaction price of 145.89 yuan per share during the period from June 11 unlock to June 30, Xiamen Fukai and Yidun Media would have pocketed approximately 97.2565 million yuan and 220 million yuan respectively. Combined with the prospectus analysis, Xiamen Fukai's initial investment cost was approximately 37 million yuan, while Yidun Media's investment cost reached 50 million yuan, with the two institutions having achieved book returns of 2.63 times and 4.40 times respectively.

It is worth noting that Xiamen Fukai was originally managed by McGrow Fuda as the largest LP contributor, and later transferred to Arashi Vision Inc. (SHA: 688775) founder Liu Jingkang and his controlled company Shenzhen Yi'er Information Network Co., Ltd. Tianyancha public information shows that Liu Jingkang and related entities contributed approximately 30% to Xiamen Fukai, which by calculation means his reduction amount was nearly 30 million yuan.