NVIDIA's stock has fallen 15% from its October 2025 high of $212.19, weighed down by a combination of factors including concerns about AI disruption, the Iran oil shock, and broader market anxiety. However, beneath the selling pressure may lie a buying signal that has historically rewarded patient investors—if one can connect the clues. This signal comes from Andrew Slimmon, Senior Portfolio Manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who recently published his latest stock commentary. To be clear, Slimmon did not specifically mention NVIDIA. His argument targets the broader market, but its relevance to NVIDIA is striking.

The Three Factors for Stock Selection Slimmon tracks what he calls a "triad" of stock selection factors: momentum, earnings revisions, and share buybacks. Among these, earnings revisions—the pattern where analysts raise a company's profit forecasts and the stock price subsequently rises—is typically one of the most reliable predictors of future returns. When Wall Street raises earnings expectations for a stock, its price often follows suit. Currently, this relationship is broken. Earnings revisions have been one of the worst-performing factors this year. Companies receiving upward earnings estimate revisions have not been rewarded with corresponding stock price increases. Slimmon believes the reason is that investors are overly focused on macro headlines—Iran tensions, oil prices nearing $100 per barrel, AI disruption fears, private credit stress—while ignoring individual company fundamentals.