In pre-market trading on Monday, January 12th, futures for all three major U.S. stock indices were down. At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell 0.71%, S&P 500 index futures dropped 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.87%.

At the time of writing, Germany's DAX index rose 0.33%, while the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.03%, France's CAC 40 index dropped 0.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index declined 0.05%.

At the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.61% to $58.58 per barrel. Brent crude oil dropped 0.81% to $62.83 per barrel.

A "super week" is upon us! Wall Street's bullish faith faces a major test as the U.S. earnings season dramatically commences, with U.S. CPI and PPI data set to make a heavyweight appearance. The new round of U.S. corporate earnings season officially kicks off this week, with Wall Street financial giants like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase leading the charge. The market anticipates that these titans will set a positive tone for the season with better-than-expected growth results and optimistic outlooks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's latest earnings report is also under close scrutiny, with the key focus being whether the chip foundry giant can deliver on its strong growth narrative as the most critical manufacturer for AI chips; the market will closely watch TSMC's Q4 profit, future capital expenditure expectations, and management's full-year revenue growth guidance. Concurrently, U.S. December CPI, November PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively this week. Traders will use this series of economic data to price the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.

The U.S. stock market's Q4 earnings season begins: Both HSBC and Citi are aligned in expecting "upside surprises," with the IT sector remaining the growth engine. HSBC and Citi released research reports providing forward-looking analysis on the S&P 500 index's fourth-quarter earnings. HSBC noted that while market consensus expects a slowdown in EPS growth, Q4 earnings reports have the potential to deliver positive surprises, as seen recently. Profit margins are expected to rise slightly, but at the slowest pace since Q2 2023—market consensus anticipates only the technology sector will achieve double-digit EPS growth; the consumer staples and utilities sectors are expected to be the weakest performers. Meanwhile, Citi expects S&P 500 EPS for Q4 2025 to beat consensus estimates by about 4%, with full-year earnings reaching $275. The key focus for investors will be forward-looking commentary, particularly regarding the trajectory of EPS for 2026 and beyond. Citi forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $320 for 2026, above the bottom-up consensus estimate of $312.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing a criminal investigation. According to informed officials, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia has launched a criminal investigation into Powell concerning the Fed's renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope. Powell stated that this new threat is not related to his testimony last June, nor to the Fed building renovation, and is unrelated to Congressional oversight functions, suggesting these are merely pretexts. He indicated the threat of criminal charges stems from the Fed setting interest rates based on its best assessment of the public interest, rather than following the President's preferences. Powell emphasized this is about whether the Fed can continue to set rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether monetary policy will be swayed by political pressure or coercion.

The Federal Reserve's independence is in jeopardy! The U.S. dollar fell, while gold and silver prices hit new record highs. The criminal investigation into Powell signals that the Fed's decades-long monetary policy independence is facing an "unprecedented political offensive." At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.37% to 98.77. Gold prices continued their ascent, driven by geopolitical risks and threats to Fed independence from the Trump administration, reaching a new all-time high. New York gold futures briefly broke through the $4,600 per ounce barrier during the session and were quoted at $4,596 per ounce at the time of writing. Silver prices also surged, rising over 5% to $83.78 per ounce at the time of writing, after hitting a historic high of $84.65 per ounce during the day. Palladium and platinum prices also moved higher.

Goldman Sachs' 2026 Outlook: U.S. economic growth poised to sprint to 2.8%, Fed expected to cut rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. Goldman Sachs economists noted that the U.S. economy is set for steady growth this year, driven by tax cuts, rising real wages, and continued wealth accumulation, while inflation is expected to gradually moderate. However, given increasing uncertainty in the labor market outlook, the Fed is projected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. Goldman's forecast exhibits stronger optimism: by Q4 2026, U.S. GDP year-on-year growth could reach 2.5%, with full-year growth expected at 2.8%; by December of that year, core PCE inflation is projected to fall to 2.1% year-on-year, and core CPI growth is also expected to slow to around 2%. Under the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate will stabilize at 4.5%, but risks of a "jobless growth" phase exist—businesses might leverage AI technology to reduce labor costs, potentially decoupling economic growth from employment growth.

Trump calls for a 10% cap on credit card rates! Related U.S. stocks for credit card companies and issuers fell broadly in pre-market trading. Last Friday, Trump posted on a social media platform: "As President of the United States, I call for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates effective January 20, 2026." If implemented, this would push credit card rates below any level seen since 1994. It remains unclear how this proposed measure would be enforced, but if rate reductions impact net interest income, profits for card issuers would undoubtedly face pressure. At the time of writing, Synchrony Financial (SYF.US), Bread Financial (BFH.US), and Capital One (COF.US) fell over 10%, American Express (AXP.US) dropped over 5%, Citigroup (C.US) declined over 4%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) fell nearly 3%, while Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), Barclays (BCS.US), and Mastercard (MA.US) dropped over 2%, and Visa (V.US) fell nearly 2%.

Tempus AI (TEM.US) reports explosive 83% year-on-year revenue growth for 2025, pre-market stock surges over 10%. Tempus AI, a leading technology company focused on applying artificial intelligence to precision medicine, announced preliminary unaudited financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The report stated its 2025 revenue was approximately $1.27 billion, representing year-on-year growth of about 83% (including approximately 30% organic growth, excluding contributions from the Ambry Genetics business). The stock rose 11% in pre-market trading.

Sizzling AI demand fuels Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US) performance! Q4 net profit expected to surge 27%, hitting a new record. Benefiting from seemingly insatiable demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, the world's largest AI chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, is expected to see its Q4 2025 net profit surge 27%, reaching a historic high. According to a survey of 19 analysts by LSEG SmartEstimate, TSMC is projected to achieve a net profit of TWD 475.2 billion (approximately USD 15.02 billion) for the three months ending December 31, 2025. Any reported net profit figure above TWD 452.3 billion would mark a new quarterly record and represent the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth.

Walmart (WMT.US) partners with Google (GOOGL.US) to launch AI shopping, jointly promoting "conversational commerce." Walmart and Google announced on Sunday that consumers will be able to more easily explore products and complete purchases at Walmart and its warehouse club chain, Sam's Club, using Google's AI assistant, Gemini. Incoming Walmart CEO John Furner and Google CEO Sundar Pichai jointly announced the collaboration on stage at the National Retail Federation's annual "Big Show" at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York. They did not disclose a launch date for the new feature or the financial terms. Walmart stated the service will launch first in the U.S. before expanding internationally. As early as last October, Walmart partnered with OpenAI to launch an "instant checkout" feature within ChatGPT, allowing users to purchase single items without leaving the conversation.

Meta (META.US) complies with Australian ban, forcibly shuts down 550,000 teen accounts. Meta stated it closed approximately 330,000 Instagram accounts, 173,000 Facebook accounts, and nearly 40,000 Threads accounts believed to belong to users under the age of 16. The Australian ban officially took effect on December 10 last year, mandating that platforms, including ByteDance's TikTok and Instagram, prohibit users under 16 or face fines of up to AUD 49.5 million (approximately USD 33 million). Despite this, Meta continued to express opposition to the ban, calling for a standard age verification mechanism and broader industry-wide protections for young people using any application. Meta also pointed to the surge in downloads of alternative social media platforms as a concerning area.

Earnings Preview for Tuesday Pre-market: JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)