Abstract

Hexpol AB will report quarterly results on July 20, 2026 Pre-Market; consensus implies lower year-over-year revenue and earnings, and investors will focus on pricing, costs, and cash conversion as they evaluate the near-term outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to revenue of 4.98 billion SEK this quarter, down 2.44% year over year, EPS of 1.43 (down 13.33% year over year), and EBIT of 683.33 million SEK (down 13.12% year over year); no formal consensus is available for gross or net margin. Based on the last report, the market will watch whether gross margin can hold around the recent level and whether the net margin can remain near double digits as pricing, costs, and mix evolve.

The main business, Hexpol Rubber Compounding, remains the backbone of group revenue after delivering 3.30 billion SEK last quarter, and investors are monitoring order trends, pricing mechanics, and pass-through timing against raw-material cost movements. The segment with the clearest scope for upside surprise this quarter is Hexpol Thermoplastic Compounding, which generated 1.11 billion SEK last quarter; with group revenue forecast to decline 2.44% year over year, the relative resilience of this smaller, more specialty-oriented mix will be scrutinized, though no segment-level YoY growth data was disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Hexpol AB reported revenue of 4.77 billion SEK, a gross profit margin of 21.54%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 507.00 million SEK, a net profit margin of 10.63%, and EPS of 1.47, which declined 16.00% year over year.

A notable highlight was the strong quarter-on-quarter recovery in net profit, which increased by 49.56%, implying improving earnings momentum into the current quarter. In terms of business mix, Hexpol Rubber Compounding contributed 3.30 billion SEK (69.17% of group revenue), Hexpol Thermoplastic Compounding delivered 1.11 billion SEK (23.24%), and HEXPOL Engineered Products provided 362.00 million SEK (7.59%); the group’s total revenue declined 11.39% year over year, underscoring a softer demand backdrop relative to the prior year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Rubber Compounding

Rubber Compounding is the company’s dominant revenue engine, and the current quarter’s setup is defined by the balance between price realization, volume stabilization, and raw-material cost trajectories. The last-quarter gross margin of 21.54% provides a reference point for evaluating price-cost spread performance; given consensus expectations for revenue and earnings to decline year over year, investors are likely to test whether pricing can offset any mix or volume pressure. The quarter-on-quarter step-up in net profit last period (+49.56%) also raises the bar for sustaining sequential momentum, making this quarter a test of whether cost actions and procurement discipline can continue to support earnings despite the softer YoY backdrop. Cash conversion and working-capital discipline will be focal points for this business, particularly receivables and inventory turns, because compounding workflows can rapidly reflect changes in end-customer scheduling. A stable or improving EBIT-to-cash conversion would reinforce the quality of earnings, especially as consensus EBIT is projected at 683.33 million SEK (down 13.12% year over year), highlighting the need to defend margins even if the revenue base edges lower.

Thermoplastic Compounding

Thermoplastic Compounding, at 1.11 billion SEK last quarter, is being watched for stability and potential mix benefits in the current quarter. The consensus revenue contraction of 2.44% year over year at the group level sets a conservative tone; against that, this segment’s smaller base provides scope for relative outperformance if pricing, formulation upgrades, or customer program ramps proceed on schedule. Margin transmission is a central watchpoint: when feedstock prices fluctuate, this segment’s ability to adjust customer pricing with minimal lag can influence the overall group gross margin, which last quarter stood at 21.54%. A key question for this quarter is whether the segment can deliver an earnings contribution that supports EPS of 1.43 (implying a 13.33% year-over-year decline), thereby cushioning the group from broader macro softness implied by consensus. The unit’s performance may also be a bellwether for the company’s capacity to capture value in specialty formulations where technical content and customer stickiness can help sustain price discipline, a dynamic that would be supportive for EBIT and group net margin if realized.

Key Share Price Factors This Quarter

Three numerical anchors frame how the market is likely to trade the stock around the print: revenue at 4.98 billion SEK (-2.44% YoY), EPS at 1.43 (-13.33% YoY), and EBIT at 683.33 million SEK (-13.12% YoY). A delivery near the high end of these ranges—or any positive surprise on operating margin versus last quarter’s 21.54% gross margin and 10.63% net margin—would likely be interpreted as evidence of robust price-cost management and resilient mix, feeding into expectations for steadier earnings power in the second half. Conversely, misses driven by a weaker-than-expected margin outcome would likely reinforce the cautious tone signaled by consensus, especially if the EBIT shortfall is accompanied by signs of pressured pricing or volume slippage in core programs. The sequential momentum from last quarter’s 49.56% QoQ net profit increase also raises the stakes: the market will look for confirmation that the improvement was not a one-off, which elevates the importance of qualitative commentary on orders, pricing conversations, and customer schedules. Finally, cash-flow quality will matter as much as income-statement optics; any commentary on working-capital normalization, discipline around inventory, and prudence in receivables will influence how investors extrapolate the EPS bridge into the next quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Within the January 1, 2026 to July 13, 2026 window, the available previews classify as cautious, with 0% bullish and 100% bearish/cautious opinions among the items identified. The majority assessment highlights expectations for a year-over-year decline in revenue of 2.44%, EPS of 1.43 with a 13.33% decline, and EBIT of 683.33 million SEK with a 13.12% decline, framing a muted setup into July 20, 2026. These previews emphasize the absence of a clear consensus for gross or net margin and point to a wait-and-see stance until margin cadence and cash conversion become clearer on the call. In the absence of explicit rating changes from widely recognized sell-side institutions in this period, the public previews nonetheless converge on a conservative narrative: the quarter is likely to show that the company remains solidly profitable but that year-over-year comparisons remain a headwind, making delivery versus consensus on revenue and margin the decisive variables. The cautious side underscores three factors behind its stance: first, negative year-over-year growth embedded in consensus for revenue (-2.44%), EBIT (-13.12%), and EPS (-13.33%); second, sensitivity of margins to price-cost timing given the last reported gross margin of 21.54% and net margin of 10.63%; and third, the need for further evidence that the prior quarter’s 49.56% sequential net profit improvement can be sustained into the second half. If management can demonstrate steady pricing discipline, stable demand signals, and improved cash conversion, the cautious camp notes that its stance could change quickly; until such confirmation, the balance of opinion remains reserved ahead of the Pre-Market release on July 20, 2026.