OpenAI's release of Sora 2 represents the strongest signal yet of a fundamental shift in creative software toward generative AI solutions. This isn't merely about "generating videos" - Sora 2 can create motion scenes that adhere to physical laws, maintain consistency across multiple camera angles, and generate synchronized audio and sound effects based on prompts. Compared to previous versions, Sora 2 shows significant improvements in realism, controllability, and audiovisual performance. It has already launched through the new Sora iOS app and will expand to additional platforms in the future.

Unlike traditional post-production software, OpenAI has chosen to integrate its model within a social creative application. The Sora App is currently in invitation-only testing in the United States and Canada, allowing users to create derivative works from trending content. The "cameo" feature enables friends' images and voices to appear in generated videos, with collaborative management and deletion capabilities. While current video length is capped at 10 seconds, the direction is unmistakably clear.

The evolution speed of user-generated video over the past year has been remarkable. Sora 2's research achievements demonstrate this isn't just about prettier visuals, but a comprehensive upgrade in physical representation: spheres bounce naturally rather than "teleport," rigid bodies collide realistically, and floating objects drift naturally. These improvements signal that generated video has evolved from "toy-level demonstrations" to content "suitable for advertising or storytelling." Human experience-based motion modeling is accelerating on a quarterly basis, rather than over decades.

Meanwhile, Google's Veo 3 has also launched consumer applications and professional tools, with the industry entering a "continuous release" mode.

**Adobe's Dilemma: From Creator to "Wrapper Layer"**

Adobe certainly recognizes this trend. In February, it launched Firefly Video in public beta, supporting 5-second 1080p video generation with added translation functionality. However, compared to next-generation models like Sora 2, Firefly appears constrained in both ambition and visual fidelity.

More critically, Adobe documentation reveals its products are transitioning toward an "aggregator" model: users can access Veo, Luma, Runway, Topaz, and other non-Adobe engines through Firefly's web interface. In essence, Adobe increasingly resembles a "high-quality shell" rather than the source of the most powerful models.

Adobe's subscription plans confirm this shift: Creative Cloud is being split into standard and professional versions, adopting a "generation credits" billing model while explicitly allowing users to choose non-Adobe AI models (including OpenAI GPT, Google Imagen, Veo, Flux, and others). Adobe's moat is no longer the model itself, but rather billing, bundling, and interface design.

However, the Sora application isn't just a "demonstrator" for showcasing models - it's a creative distribution platform. It disrupts traditional video production workflows (Device A captures → Software B edits → Platform C publishes). When generation and distribution occur simultaneously, control over "exporting mp4" has been supplanted.

Adobe possesses top-tier editing tools, but OpenAI has captured the epicenter of cultural trends. In the future, "where creation happens" will be "where viewing happens," and that isn't Adobe territory.

Adobe Firefly's "pay-per-use" model (monthly credit refresh, additional purchases required for overages) may align with computational economics, but compared to competitors' "free tier + membership upgrade" models, the product experience gap is significant. Many users complain: they've already paid for Creative Cloud subscriptions, yet must pay again for video generation features. Product friction ultimately translates to user attrition.

**Valuation Risk**

Adobe achieved $5.99 billion in Q3 FY25 revenue, up 11% year-over-year, with a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion, still enjoying "software premium" valuations. However, if external models control the quality high ground of content production while Adobe serves merely as a "wrapper layer," its profit margins and growth potential will inevitably face compression.

For investors, if AI video competition centers on "model selection" rather than "editor selection," Adobe's business model may struggle to support 6-7x price-to-sales ratios. As a "wrapper layer," Adobe faces pressure from both directions: upstream model providers control technological iteration, while downstream user demands evolve rapidly. Each leap in model quality erodes Adobe's differentiation advantages.

The choice becomes: either invest heavily in frontier research or rely on external suppliers as a "relay station." Adobe's decision to allow third-party engine integration in Firefly appears pragmatic short-term but represents strategic compromise long-term.

**Why Sora 2 Represents an Inflection Point**

Sora 2 consolidates quality, controllability, audio, and distribution - four core dimensions Adobe depends upon for survival. It not only generates more realistic visuals but ensures multi-shot continuity, accurate audio-visual synchronization, and drives user creation and derivative works through social applications.

Adobe's advantages lie in brand recognition, file format standards, and enterprise market penetration. However, if new generative video models render traditional formats unnecessary, these advantages become obsolete.

Adobe is transitioning from "inventor" to "integrator," while video generation evolves from "gimmick" to "production tool." Sora 2's emergence makes this strategic risk impossible to ignore: its reality simulation capabilities are sufficiently powerful, creating a closed loop through social applications. Adobe's countermeasures (credits, bundling, third-party integration) fail to address the fundamental issue - intelligence isn't in their hands.

In the most optimistic scenario, Adobe becomes merely a "beautiful shell"; in the most pessimistic case, it degrades to an export portal. Either way, Sora 2 accelerates this process. For a company whose valuation still reflects "industry leader" status, this undoubtedly presents cause for concern.