According to recent reports, domestic real estate stocks experienced widespread declines today. As of the latest update, <01918>融创中国01918>(SUNAC) fell 3.85% to HKD 1.50; <03301>融信中国03301>(RONSHINECHINA) decreased by 3.31% to HKD 0.175; <01030>新城发展01030>(SEAZEN) dropped 2.19% to HKD 2.23; and <03900>绿城中国03900>(GREENTOWN CHINA) was down 2.05% to HKD 8.59. Huatai Securities released a research report indicating that from a macro perspective, the current real estate cycle is in deep waters as it attempts to find its bottom, with greater optimism for a recovery rhythm led by core cities such as first-tier cities. From a strategic viewpoint, the risk within the real estate chain sector may have been sufficiently digested, presenting a dual logic where quality enterprises could benefit from improving performance expectations and advancements among leading firms. Meanwhile, Shenwan Hongyuan projects that Q3 performance of real estate companies will continue to face pressure, primarily due to declining sales since 2021 leading to reduced settlements. Previous price cuts and promotions have impacted current settlements and profit margins negatively. However, considering the government's push for the real estate industry to stabilize and the bottoming out of enterprise margins and impairment clearances, it is generally expected that the sector’s performance could exhibit weak recovery amid bottom fluctuations from 2025 to 2026, with an intensifying performance divergence among companies.
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