CICC issued a research report maintaining its 2025/2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts for ASCENTAGE-B (06855) unchanged, while keeping its outperform rating. Considering the progress of GLORA-4 and improved visibility in new indication opportunities, the firm raised its target price by 19.3% to HK$105 based on DCF model, representing 15.8% upside potential from current share price. The company reported H1 2025 revenue of RMB234 million, with performance meeting the firm's expectations, mainly due to licensing income generated in the same period last year.

CICC's key investment points are as follows:

Nivrocz's new indication inclusion in national reimbursement list drives rapid growth in commercialization revenue in first half, while lisaftoclax approval expected to contribute new growth momentum in second half

Benefiting from the inclusion of new indication for first and second-generation TKI-resistant and/or intolerant CML-CP in national reimbursement list in 2025, Nivrocz (olverembatinib) generated revenue of RMB217 million in H1 2025, up 93% year-over-year. On July 10, the company's Lismento (lisaftoclax) received domestic approval for marketing, indicated for CLL/SLL patients who have received one prior systemic therapy, becoming China's first approved Bcl-2 inhibitor for CLL/SLL. The firm believes this represents significant potential commercial opportunity and could provide new momentum for the company's performance growth.

Lismento's second global Phase III registration trial GLORA-4 receives FDA and EMA approval

On August 18, the company announced that the global Phase III registration trial GLORA-4 for Lismento in combination with azacitidine as first-line treatment for intermediate-to-high risk MDS received approval from US FDA and European EMA to proceed, with future multi-national, multi-center simultaneous enrollment planned globally. According to company announcement, as of the announcement date, Lismento is the only Bcl-2 inhibitor internationally advancing Phase III registration trials for intermediate-to-high risk MDS, potentially filling a long-standing gap in this field. Previously published data from ASCO 2025 showed that Lismento combined with azacitidine achieved 75% ORR in treatment-naive MDS patients with good safety profile. The firm believes MDS represents a broad patient population with significant unmet needs in first-line treatment, and this strategic positioning could enhance the company's differentiation advantages.

Key development milestones to monitor include: 1) Progress of olverembatinib FDA registration trial POLARIS-2 and potential option exercise by Takeda. 2) Progress of olverembatinib Ph+ ALL registration trials. 3) Progress of Lismento's US CLL/SLL registration trial GLORA and MDS registration trial GLORA-4 studies.