Spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its upward trajectory during the Asian trading session, with prices advancing to around $62.40, marking a fourth consecutive day of gains and establishing a steady rebound pattern. The primary driver for the precious metals market is gradually shifting from a singular safe-haven narrative to a multi-factor dynamic involving adjustments to interest rate expectations, receding inflation, and fluctuations in the US dollar.
The key catalyst for this recent rally is a significant cooling in US employment data. The latest non-farm payrolls report showed that the US economy added only about 57,000 jobs in June, falling well short of the market consensus of 110,000 and indicating a clear deceleration in labor market expansion. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.2% from a previous 4.3%, the overall weak signals from the employment structure are more pronounced, reinforcing market assessments of a slowdown in US economic momentum.
In response to the data, markets swiftly recalibrated their expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Pricing in the interest rate futures market now indicates the probability of a September rate hike has dropped to approximately 52%, a notable decline from before the data release, reflecting waning market confidence in further policy tightening. The retreat in real interest rate expectations has directly enhanced the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.
From a macro-environmental perspective, silver is concurrently benefiting from a temporary easing of inflationary pressures. The sustained decline in energy prices has emerged as a critical variable, with the crude oil market weakening due to de-escalating Middle East geopolitical risks and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, indirectly suppressing broader inflation expectations. Against a backdrop of both inflation and interest rates trending lower, silver's financial and inflation-hedging attributes are receiving simultaneous support.
Concurrently, a phase of weakness in the US dollar is providing additional upward momentum for silver. Following the market's reassessment of the Fed's policy path, upward momentum for the US Dollar Index has been constrained, allowing precious metals to maintain a generally stronger structure.
On the geopolitical front, while indirect US-Iran talks have not yielded a breakthrough, market concerns over a systemic supply disruption have notably subsided. This shift means the safe-haven logic for precious metals is reverting more to macroeconomic dominance rather than being driven by singular geopolitical events.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart for silver shows a clear, step-like upward trend, with prices continuing to climb after breaking through a previous consolidation range, maintaining a robust bullish structure. However, short-term indicators suggest momentum is beginning to enter a high-level extension phase, with price volatility intensifying above $62, indicating some profit-taking pressure from short-term positions. Key support below is seen around the $61.80 region, which aligns with short-term moving average support and the previous breakout platform; a breach of this level could trigger a phase of correction towards the $60 vicinity. Major resistance is concentrated in the $63.80–$65.20 range, a zone combining a previous high-volume trading area with a psychological barrier. A decisive break above this resistance could potentially open the door for a new wave of upward movement.
On the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clearly defined bullish alignment, but the RSI has entered a relatively high zone, with short-term momentum showing signs of slowing. The MACD histogram is beginning to contract, indicating a moderation in the pace of the advance. If prices consolidate above $62 accompanied by expanding volume, the uptrend could continue. Conversely, failure to hold above $62 may lead to a phase of high-level consolidation and correction. Overall, the short-term trend remains biased to the upside, but the risk of increased volatility is rising in tandem.