During the Asian trading session on May 27, the spot price of gold declined. As of 14:30, the price had fallen to $4,486 per ounce.

Compared to the historical high of nearly $5,600 per ounce reached in January of this year, the international gold price has now retreated by approximately 20% cumulatively.

Since mid-May, the volatility of the spot gold price has noticeably narrowed, largely fluctuating within the range of $4,500 to $4,700 per ounce. Amid this sideways price movement, several international investment banks have recently lowered their gold price forecasts.

JPMorgan Chase has revised its average gold price forecast for the year down from $5,708 to $5,243 per ounce. Morgan Stanley has lowered its target price for the second half of the year from $5,700 to $5,200 per ounce. While Citigroup remains optimistic about the medium-term market, it holds a bearish view on the short-term prospects for gold, projecting a target price of only $4,300 per ounce over the next three months.

An analyst stated that in the short term, the gold price is expected to maintain a pattern of narrow-range fluctuation, with a low probability of either a significant upward breakout or a deep correction. The primary reason is that bullish and bearish factors have currently reached a phase of equilibrium.

Although the United States and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement, military actions have not completely ceased, maintaining a pattern of "fighting while talking."

"This leaves uncertainty regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the underlying support for energy prices remains," the analyst added. The analyst also noted that expectations for the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy have largely solidified, with expectations for an interest rate cut within the year nearly zero. This has kept the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond running at high levels, meaning the opportunity cost of holding gold continues to rise, which also puts pressure on the gold price.

Furthermore, according to the analyst, after the gold price retreated to around $4,500 per ounce, the willingness of medium- to long-term allocation funds to enter the market on dips has increased, providing bottom support for the gold price.

Short-term fluctuations do not equate to a long-term downturn. In the analyst's view, the core logic supporting an upward movement in gold prices has not fundamentally reversed. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the overall trend for gold prices remains in a confirmed upward trajectory.

Another analyst is also bullish on the long-term price of gold. In their view, factors such as the decline in U.S. consumer-side inflation guiding expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the continued increase in outstanding public debt in the U.S. and other major global countries, and sustained gold purchases by multiple central banks will become potential catalysts for an increase in the international gold price.

So, is there still a chance for the gold price to break through the historical high of $5,600 within the year?

The first analyst believes this possibility still exists, but not under the baseline scenario.

"To break through $5,600 per ounce would require a further significant rise from the current high level, typically necessitating the resonance of multiple bullish factors rather than being driven by a single factor," the analyst stated. These factors include a substantive shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the materialization of U.S. fiscal risks, an unexpected escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict, and central bank gold purchases exceeding expectations.

The analyst further emphasized that if only some of these factors materialize, the gold price may be more inclined to fluctuate upward within a high range. If multiple factors resonate, reaching $5,600 per ounce is not impossible.

Currently, with the gold price having fallen below $4,500 per ounce, has it become an entry opportunity?

The analyst suggests that investors can formulate differentiated strategies based on their own capital attributes and risk preferences.

For short-term trading capital, it is advisable to conduct range trading around the core fluctuation range of $4,500 to $4,700 per ounce, strictly implementing position management, stop-loss, and take-profit orders. One could establish long positions when the gold price falls to around $4,500 per ounce and take profits when it rebounds to around $4,700 per ounce. However, it is crucial to be vigilant against the risk of a range breakout triggered by unexpected events and avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling off during declines.

The second analyst recommends that short-term investors utilize commercial banks or the Shanghai Futures Exchange to conduct short-term buying and selling operations based on market analysis.

For medium- to long-term allocation funds, the strategy is entirely different.

The first analyst suggests adopting a method of periodic fixed investments or adding positions on pullbacks to build a position gradually. Allocation tools can prioritize gold ETFs and feeder funds with good liquidity, holding them long-term to hedge against sovereign credit risk, stagflation risk, and geopolitical uncertainty, while ignoring short-term price fluctuations.

The second analyst believes that investors can either purchase a certain quantity of physical gold or paper gold in a lump sum through retailers like banks, or buy a fixed amount of paper gold daily through banks in batches regardless of price fluctuations. Alternatively, they can participate in far-month gold futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange based on market movements.