Current bank deposit and wealth management product yields are at historical lows, while the stock market's money-making effect continues to accumulate. A-share intrinsic returns keep improving, and massive incremental funds are highly likely to flow into stock and fund markets, driving A-shares toward a major upward trend. Based on this, we have constructed indicators for the potential and enthusiasm of incremental fund inflows. Currently, the potential indicator remains below the historical mean, while the enthusiasm indicator sits below the mean plus one standard deviation, still having significant room for growth compared to historical highs. Margin financing balances continue to grow, private fund scales keep climbing, and individual investor account openings remain active, serving as the main channels for current incremental fund inflows. Looking ahead, equity-focused public funds are expected to continue the relay, and foreign capital is also expected to maintain net inflows as an important source of incremental funds. Referencing the previous two bull markets, we estimate potential incremental funds could still reach 5.4 trillion yuan.

**Core Viewpoints**

⚑ Retail investable funds are massive in scale, and signs of a new round of deposit "migration" have quietly emerged. Current bank deposit and wealth management product yields are at historical lows, while stock market money-making effects and intrinsic value continue to improve, creating urgent need for higher return outlets for retail excess savings. Currently, retail investable funds are massive in scale, but since June 2025, household net deposits have declined consecutively, with non-bank deposits continuing year-over-year growth in August, quietly signaling a new round of deposit "migration." As individual investors gradually recognize the improvement in stock intrinsic value and significantly higher long-term holding returns, massive incremental funds may flow into stock and fund markets, potentially driving A-shares toward a major upward trend.

⚑ How to measure incremental fund inflows? We divide incremental fund inflow indicators into market entry potential and enthusiasm, where the potential indicator is a reverse indicator - higher values indicate less potential incremental off-market funds; the enthusiasm indicator is a positive indicator - higher values indicate more active fund inflows through various channels. The potential indicator primarily measures incremental fund market entry potential through the time-series standardized mean of household net deposits/A-share tradable market cap and M1 year-over-year growth. As of end-August 2025, the incremental fund market entry potential indicator value was -0.02, still below the historical mean of 0.09. The enthusiasm indicator uses time-series standardized scores of margin financing balances, private funds, equity fund issuance shares, and non-bank deposit scale changes to measure current fund inflow enthusiasm. As of end-August 2025, the incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicator value was 0.65, exceeding the historical mean of 0.10 but still below the historical mean plus one standard deviation.

⚑ Historical incremental fund inflow trends. From historical performance, the incremental fund market entry potential indicator mostly operates within the historical mean ±2 standard deviations range. Touching the mean minus 2 standard deviations indicates significant incremental fund market entry potential, when markets are often near relative bottoms. Touching the mean plus 2 standard deviations suggests incremental fund market entry potential approaches extremes, with limited subsequent new off-market funds. The incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicator relatively lags the entry potential indicator, with enthusiasm indicators surging and falling after fund entry potential touches the mean plus 1 or 2 standard deviations. In the 2013-2015 bull market, incremental fund market entry paths showed a "margin financing funds → bank-securities transfers → public funds" diffusion process, though different channels had varying participation levels and contributions. In the 2019-2021 bull market, incremental funds initially also entered through margin financing channels but were quickly succeeded by newly issued public funds, with private fund channels also contributing certain increments.

⚑ Main characteristics and outlook for this round of incremental fund inflows. Currently, margin financing balances, private fund scales continue climbing, individual investor account openings remain active, and sector ETFs maintain net subscriptions, serving as main channels for current retail incremental fund inflows, with incremental funds forming positive feedback to some degree. Looking ahead, as money-making effects continue accumulating, equity-focused public fund issuance is expected to continue the relay, with increasing probability of foreign capital returns, potentially becoming important incremental fund sources. Referencing the previous two bull markets, using September 2024 as this bull market's starting point and assuming the market entry potential indicator rises to 1 standard deviation, we estimate potential incremental funds could still reach 5.4 trillion yuan.

⚑ Risk warnings: Economic data and policies falling short of expectations; overseas policies tightening beyond expectations; core assumptions in this analysis becoming invalid or ineffective.

**01 Incremental Funds and Stock Market Performance**

Every A-share bull market is inseparable from incremental fund driving forces. The scale of net inflow funds often directly determines overall market rise and fall magnitude. From funding sources, incremental funds can mainly be divided into retail and institutional categories, with institutional funds further subdivided into public funds, private funds, insurance, foreign capital, bank wealth management, social security, trusts, etc. Ultimately, except for foreign capital and institutional proprietary funds, retail savings are the most fundamental source of A-share incremental funds, flowing into markets through direct or indirect channels and converting into various types of market-entry funds.

Reviewing history, every major bull market has relied on strong support from retail savings "migration." For example, during the 2007 "super bull market" and 2015 "leveraged bull market" periods, individual investors' massive account openings and leveraging served as key incremental fund sources. Throughout A-share major market trends, individual investors have consistently played important roles.

Currently, retail investable funds are massive in scale, with signs of a new round of deposit "migration" quietly emerging. From growth rate perspective, since September 2024, household net deposit year-over-year growth has shown an overall slowing trend, declining from 21.2% in September 2024 to 19.0% in August 2025, reflecting that household deposits may be gradually transferring to equity markets, with new round of fund "migration" signs quietly emerging.

Measuring by the ratio of public and private fund net assets to household net deposits, incremental funds entering markets indirectly through public and private funds still have considerable growth space. As of July 2025, equity-focused public and private fund net assets accounted for 19% of household net deposits (42nd historical percentile), with the historical peak reaching around 50% in 2021, leaving 30% potential growth space from current levels.

Current bank deposit and wealth management product yields are at historical lows, while stock market money-making effects continue improving, profoundly reshaping retail wealth allocation patterns. Currently, major state-owned banks' 1-year deposit rates have fallen to 0.95%, with 3-year deposit average rates at only 1.71%, and some small-to-medium banks even showing rate inversions. Since July 2025, major A-share indices have continuously hit historical highs. Under the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, fixed-income asset returns have generally declined. Driven by low interest rates and stock market money-making effects, retail funds awaiting investment urgently need higher return outlets.

Previously, we explained A-share revaluation logic in "Reassessing A-share Fundamentals: Weighted Index Edition": In 2025, China's economy entered a new phase where, in extremely low volatility earnings growth environments, markets are expected to focus more on listed companies' continuous, significant free cash flow improvements. A-share free cash flow yields continue rising, with intrinsic value also expected to continue recovering. In this round of interest rate decline cycles since 2018, spreads between different grade and maturity bonds relative to risk-free rates have sequentially converged. Bank stock dividend yield declines and price revaluations are occurring, with CSI 300 non-financial construction expected to become the final quasi-fixed-income assets after bank stock dividend yield spreads relative to 10-year treasury bonds converge, welcoming revaluation under incremental funds, national team, insurance funds, active public funds, and foreign capital increases.

From CSI 300 non-financial construction free cash flow yields and intrinsic return rate perspectives, currently after major market rises, CSI 300 non-financial construction free cash flow yields still reach 4.5%, with intrinsic return rates SIRR considering perpetual growth rates still at 6.7%. As individual investors gradually recognize stock intrinsic value improvements and significantly higher long-term holding returns, massive incremental funds may flow into stock and fund markets, potentially driving A-shares toward major upward trends.

**02 How to Measure Incremental Fund Market Entry**

**1. How to measure incremental fund market entry potential?**

**(1) Household net deposits**

Household deposits refer to deposits controlled by household sectors that banking financial institutions absorb through credit methods. Household loans refer to loans that banks or other financial institutions provide to individuals or families. This data is released by the central bank mid-month for the previous month-end. We use deposit minus loan net values to measure retail investable fund market entry potential. From 2012-2021, household net deposits maintained averages around 30 trillion yuan, then continuously rose since 2022 to historical highs of 79 trillion yuan at end-2023. Since June 2025, household net deposits have declined consecutively, reaching 77.5 trillion yuan as of August 2025.

Relative to total market cap, A-share tradable market cap better reflects fund supply-demand relationships. We use the ratio of A-share tradable market cap to household net deposits to measure incremental fund market entry potential - higher indicators mean household net deposits decrease and A-share tradable market cap further increase. As of August 2025, the A-share tradable market cap to household net deposits ratio rose from July's 1.10 to 1.21, with corresponding historical percentiles rising from July's 50.8% to 56.2%. As of end-August, this ratio remains at historically moderate-to-high levels, indicating significant potential for future incremental fund market entry.

**(2) M1 growth rate**

We previously proposed five-year political-economic cycles in economic and capital market operations. Using monetary policy and economic stability-supporting policies as examples, if these policies are effectively implemented and directly promote economic development, a significant indicator is obvious M1 growth rate recovery. Observing historical data, M1 growth rate turning points over the past 20+ years appeared in late 1998/early 1999, late 2004, early 2009, early 2014, and early 2019, following the "every 9 and 4" pattern. This suggests that in "every 9 and 4" years, policies often fully deploy with monetary policy trending loose, establishing solid foundations for the following two years' economic improvement. Naturally, as economic policies gradually deploy and show effects, markets also welcome important turning points at key time nodes and enter upward cycles. Specifically, these turning points appeared in early 1999, late 2015, late 2008 to early 2009, mid-2014, and early 2019. This round's M1 growth rate bottomed and recovered before market recovery, meaning five-year cycle patterns continue operating. As of August 2025, M1 year-over-year growth rates remain at the 25th historical percentile.

M1 growth rate warming and stock market warming are both "manifestations" after economic policy deployment shows effects - both are results of economic policies or economic activities. From observing incremental fund market entry perspectives, M1 recovery can be viewed as an intermediate link in fund migration. M1 includes circulating cash, corporate demand deposits, personal demand deposits, and third-party payment reserves, reflecting economic entities' "active money" scales available anytime. Previously, M1 recovery was mostly driven by real estate transactions. Currently, low interest rate environments combined with improving equity market money-making effects may lead residents to redeem wealth management for demand deposits (boosting M1) or further convert to securities deposits. Therefore, M1 growth rates can also measure incremental fund market entry potential.

**2. How to measure incremental fund market entry enthusiasm?**

**(1) Number of investors with margin financing and securities lending liabilities, margin financing balances**

When residents transfer bank deposits to securities accounts and activate margin financing functions, their liability data directly manifests as increased "number of investors with margin financing and securities lending liabilities." This indicator can measure deposit entry intensity through leverage channels, forming triple verification with account openings and non-bank deposit surges. From market performance, the number of investors with margin financing and securities lending liabilities lags index performance - when indices stabilize and rise for some time, new margin financing investor numbers recover, while per-capita margin financing balances basically synchronize with market performance. As of September 12, 2025, investors with margin financing and securities lending liabilities rose to 1.8 million, with per-capita margin financing balances reaching 1.3 million yuan.

We use margin financing balances/A-share tradable market cap and calculate historical percentiles - higher indicator values suggest higher margin financing balances and higher proportions of margin financing balances to A-share tradable market caps, indirectly measuring off-market fund entry enthusiasm through margin financing channels. As of September 15, 2025, the margin financing balance to A-share tradable market cap ratio reached 2.49%, at relatively high levels since 2016, still significantly below 2015 peaks. The margin financing balance to A-share tradable market cap ratio sits at the 90th percentile since 2010, in historically relatively high ranges.

**(2) Private securities fund new registration scales**

This year private fund registration scales have maintained upward trends, becoming one of important incremental fund channels, especially with significantly expanded new registration scales in April-May, showing high-net-worth individual investors have entered through private fund channels first. As of July 2025, monthly new registered private securities fund scales rose to 79.3 billion yuan, while total private securities fund management scales also rose to 5.88 trillion yuan.

According to "Private Investment Fund Supervision and Management Interim Measures," after private fund fundraising completion, private fund managers should handle fund registration procedures according to fund association regulations. New registration scales can well reflect marginal incremental funds from high-net-worth individual investors. However, since new registration scale data only exists monthly from October 2021, data ranges are too short for complete cycles. Therefore, comprehensively evaluating, we use 12-month rolling private securities fund management scale month-over-month changes to A-share tradable market cap ratios to measure private fund market entry enthusiasm. As of July 2025, this indicator sits at the 65.4th historical percentile, showing private fund issuance remains hot with high-net-worth investors maintaining high market entry enthusiasm.

**(3) Equity fund issuance shares**

Public funds, as core channels for incremental fund market entry, have become important bridges connecting retail savings with capital markets. Public funds offer 1-yuan minimums, convenient subscriptions/redemptions, and transparent operations, significantly lowering retail capital market participation thresholds. Historically, public equity funds have been important incremental funds in every bull market. Incremental funds belong to right-side funds, so public fund issuance expansion often appears after market money-making effects obviously improve. According to loss-recovery resistance effects, new rounds of public fund issuance scale expansion must wait for markets to effectively break through previous fund intensive issuance range cost lines, requiring certain funds to initiate trends pushing indices through loss-recovery resistance levels, then attracting more incremental funds through public fund market entry. For example, 2013-2015 saw margin financing policy relaxation with margin financing funds continuously flowing in driving A-share rises. In Q4 2014, margin financing and retail funds accelerated inflows, with Wind All-A breaking through loss-recovery resistance levels, driving public fund issuance warming and index-level trends. In the 2019-2021 round, 2020 saw monetary policy loosening with public fund issuance gradually warming. In Q2 2020, foreign capital continuous inflows drove index rises, with margin financing also accelerating inflows in June 2020, jointly pushing indices to break through loss-recovery resistance levels in early July.

Since active public fund net subscriptions/redemptions are quarterly low-frequency data, we use monthly equity fund issuance shares as proxy indicators measuring off-market fund entry through public fund channels, using rolling 6-month new equity fund scales to A-share tradable market cap ratio historical percentiles for measurement. As of end-August 2025, this indicator remains at the 32nd percentile since 2004. Compared to 2014-15 and 2019-21 bull markets, current equity fund issuance remains relatively weak, with retail public fund market entry intensity not yet reaching "rushing in" levels.

**(4) Non-bank deposit scale changes**

Non-bank institutional sector deposits generally include deposits that securities, trust, wealth management, fund and other non-bank institutions place in banks. This indicator is released by the central bank mid-month for previous month-end data. Its surges mostly correspond to two types of fund behaviors: First, direct market entry - funds transfer to securities accounts through bank-securities transfers, recorded as "securities company client margins." Second, indirect market entry - funds enter fund company accounts through equity funds, equity-containing wealth management etc., recorded as non-bank deposits. Historically, non-bank deposit year-over-year surge periods often correspond to new account opening surges and margin balance climbs, with corresponding periods showing good stock market performance.

When residents transfer bank deposits to securities accounts to purchase stocks, funds, or wealth management products, funds move from retail deposit categories to non-bank deposit categories, directly manifesting as decreased retail deposits and increased non-bank deposits, forming deposit "seesaw effects." From central bank August financial data, August non-bank deposits continued year-over-year growth, with retail, corporate, and fiscal deposits showing varying degrees of year-over-year decreases. August RMB deposits increased 2.06 trillion yuan, 160 billion yuan less year-over-year, with non-bank financial institution deposits increasing 1.18 trillion yuan, 550 billion yuan more year-over-year; retail deposits newly increased 110 billion yuan, 600 billion yuan less year-over-year; non-financial corporate deposits newly increased 299.7 billion yuan, 50.3 billion yuan less year-over-year; fiscal deposits increased 190 billion yuan, 368.7 billion yuan less year-over-year. In August, under active equity market trading and continuously improving money-making effects, deposit non-bankization trends continued, further verifying meaningful deposit migration.

From historical data, non-bank deposit monthly changes show large monthly volatility due to policy or sentiment disturbances. We use non-bank deposit change MA6/A-share tradable market cap ratios to observe medium-term fund migration trends. As of August 2025, this indicator was 0.74%, at the 92nd historical percentile.

**3. Retail market entry enthusiasm and potential indicator construction**

In summary, we measure incremental fund market entry potential through household net deposits/A-share tradable market cap and M1 year-over-year indicators, performing rolling 5-year standardization then calculating their means as potential indicators. Additionally, we use margin financing balances, private funds, equity fund issuance shares, and non-bank deposit scale changes to measure current fund entry enthusiasm through various channels, dividing by A-share tradable market caps to calculate relative enthusiasm indicators, similarly performing rolling 5-year standardization for dimensionless treatment, finally using four-indicator time-series standardized score means as incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicators.

The enthusiasm indicator is a positive indicator - higher values indicate more active fund entry through various channels with continuous off-market incremental fund entry. As of end-August 2025, the incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicator value was 0.65, exceeding the historical mean 0.10 but still below the historical mean plus 1 standard deviation of 1.0.

The potential indicator is a reverse indicator for market performance - higher values indicate less marginal incremental off-market funds with higher probabilities of subsequent market declines. As of end-August 2025, the incremental fund market entry potential indicator value was -0.02, still below the historical mean 0.09.

**03 Historical Incremental Fund Market Entry Trends**

**1. Historical changes in incremental fund market entry potential and enthusiasm**

From historical performance, incremental fund market entry potential indicators mostly operate within historical mean ±2 standard deviations ranges. Touching mean minus 2 standard deviations indicates significant incremental fund market entry potential, when markets are often near relative bottoms. Touching mean plus 2 standard deviations suggests incremental fund market entry potential approaches extremes with limited subsequent new off-market funds. Relative to market performance, whether bottoms or tops, potential indicators slightly lead or synchronize with Wind All-A index performance.

From incremental fund market entry enthusiasm changes, this indicator relatively lags entry potential indicators, with enthusiasm indicators surging and falling after fund entry potential touches mean plus 1 or 2 standard deviations. Relative to market performance, this indicator synchronizes or lags market performance - higher incremental fund market entry enthusiasm values reflect hot off-market fund entry with better market performance.

From the 2013-2015 bull market, entry potential indicators first touched mean minus 1 standard deviation downward then returned upward, followed by accelerating entry enthusiasm indicators. After markets touched historical highs in June 2015, these two indicators showed phased pullbacks, but until end-2015 when potential indicators again approached mean plus 2 standard deviations, fund entry enthusiasm truly entered trend-down cycles. However, despite domestic fund entry enthusiasm continuously declining from 2016-2017, stock market performance wasn't poor, mainly due to foreign capital significantly net flowing into A-share core assets, cumulatively purchasing 260.4 billion yuan, with A-share corporate earnings recovering during this period, supporting index rises.

From the 2019-2021 bull market, entry potential indicators similarly first touched mean minus 1 standard deviation lower limits then recovered, followed by fund entry enthusiasm bottoming and recovering. After entry potential broke through mean plus 1 standard deviation in late 2020, it returned to downward cycles, but entry enthusiasm continued surging in 2021, accompanying further index rises. Core reasons were mainly equity fund and foreign capital entry resonance - 2021 estimated equity fund net inflows of 1.2 trillion yuan, with foreign capital continuing net purchases of 432.2 billion yuan, helping indices maintain upward trends through end-2021.

**2. Main channels for incremental fund market entry in historical bull markets**

Incremental fund market entry channels mainly include: 1) Direct entry: Securities account direct stock trading; margin trading; 2) Indirect entry: Private fund purchases; public fund purchases; bank wealth management purchases, etc.

In the 2013-2015 bull market, incremental fund market entry paths showed "margin financing funds → bank-securities transfers → public funds" diffusion processes, though different channels had varying participation levels and contributions. Specifically, from 2013, except Q2 2015, margin financing funds were basically always main incremental fund market entry methods, contributing continuous main incremental funds. From Q4 2014, retail direct account opening stock trading scales significantly expanded, especially contributing 2.6 trillion yuan incremental in Q2 2015. Public fund increments basically only accelerated in the bull market's latter half, mainly from new fund expansion, with old funds overall net redemptions, only briefly turning to net subscriptions in Q2 2015.

In the 2019-2021 bull market, incremental funds initially also entered through margin financing channels but were quickly succeeded by newly issued public funds, with private fund channels also contributing certain increments. During 2019-2021, margin financing funds had continuous inflows with margin balance scales continuously expanding. However, in this bull market, public fund issuance warmed relatively quickly, with public fund increments quickly exceeding margin financing fund increment scales, becoming main incremental fund market entry methods and the most important force driving this bull market.

**3. Current round incremental fund market entry characteristics and outlook**

**(1) Current round incremental fund market entry characteristics**

Since this year, equity markets have oscillated upward combined with AI and various emerging industry trends flourishing, creating market environments very suitable for active and quantitative funds to obtain excess returns. Active equity funds obviously outperformed major broad-based indices. Under improving fund money-making effects, equity-focused public funds have overall warmed, with August monthly active fund issuance scales peaking at 17 billion shares, at the 70th historical percentile.

Structurally, since this year new fund structures have continuously focused on passive index funds, while active equity fund issuance scales remain at historical lows. However, as market money-making effects continue accumulating, active fund issuance is expected to gradually warm.

From old fund redemption situations, July old funds continued net redemptions. According to fund association data, after excluding monthly newly established fund shares and considering monthly newly established shares, we estimate July equity-focused old fund net redemptions of 94.3 billion shares, net redemption ratios of 1.45%, with equity-focused old fund net redemption scales somewhat expanding. Since July, as Shanghai Composite and Wind All-A respectively stabilized above previous loss-recovery resistance levels of 3450 and 5400, old fund redemptions are expected to continue narrowing and gradually turn to net subscriptions in August-September.

Since this year, private fund registration scales have maintained upward trends, becoming currently most important incremental fund channels, especially with significantly expanded new registration scales in April-May, showing high-net-worth individual investors have entered through private fund channels first.

From individual investor account openings, January-August Shanghai Stock Exchange individual investor account openings obviously recovered, growing 48% year-over-year, exceeding 2020's 40% level. Structurally, individual investor new account number year-over-year growth obviously exceeded institutional account growth, with January-August individual new accounts growing 48% year-over-year while institutional new accounts grew 33% year-over-year.

Sector ETFs have become important tools for investors participating in various themes and industry trends. ETFs currently show broad-based ETF continuous outflows and sector/theme ETF inflow patterns. As of September 12, sector ETFs have cumulatively net inflowed 182.4 billion yuan this year, while broad-based index ETFs net outflowed 292.5 billion yuan, with sector ETFs becoming important tools for investors participating in various theme trends.

Since this year, an important incremental fund positive feedback mechanism has been margin financing, especially after markets broke through loss-recovery resistance levels since July. Margin balances have shown continuously expanding inflow scales, becoming important forces driving market rises. Since July, margin financing has cumulatively net inflowed over 500 billion yuan, with margin balances continuously stably operating above 2 trillion yuan.

Currently, margin balances remain continuously active, private fund scales keep climbing, individual investor account openings remain active, serving as main channels for current incremental fund market entry, with incremental funds forming positive feedback to some degree. In summary, private funds, margin financing funds, retail investors and other high-risk-preference funds have played important driving roles in market rises, with active participation of sector theme ETFs further strengthening structural trends. Under accumulating money-making effects, public fund issuance has overall warmed - these funds constitute main incremental fund sources for this round of market breakthrough rises.

**(2) Domestic incremental fund future potential estimation**

Combining past two bull markets' main channels and net inflow scales for retail fund market entry, during 2013/3-2015/6 margin financing and bank-securities transfers were main channels for retail fund market entry. Entry potential indicators rose from -0.24 to 1.19, exceeding 1 standard deviation, with estimated corresponding incremental funds flowing into stock markets through four major channels of 7 trillion yuan. During the 2019/3-2021/12 bull market, retail fund market entry potential indicators rose from -0.12 to 0.67, approaching 1 standard deviation, with corresponding incremental funds near 6.6 trillion yuan. Referencing previous two bull markets, every 0.1 standard score increase in retail fund market entry potential indicators averages corresponding public fund, margin financing, private fund, and bank-securities transfer net inflows of 205.4 billion yuan, 129.4 billion yuan, 121 billion yuan, and 208.9 billion yuan respectively. Using September 2024 as this bull market's starting point and assuming entry potential indicators rise to around 1 standard deviation - continuing upward from August 2025's -0.02 value to around 1 standard deviation of 1.09 - we estimate potential incremental funds could still reach 5.4 trillion yuan.

**(3) Future foreign capital return probabilities expected to increase**

Future USD is expected to continue weakness. In weak USD environments, emerging market performance basically outperforms developed markets, leading to global asset allocation rebalancing with foreign capital increasing emerging market allocation intensity. Since August, US labor markets have continued weakening. Weak employment data combined with Federal Reserve independence concerns has continuously heated Fed rate cut expectations. Markets currently expect three Fed rate cuts this year totaling 75BP, with USD index and US bond yields recently declining synchronously. With foreign capital's A-share allocation ratios already at historical lows, foreign capital is expected to return.

Driven by anti-involution and slowing investment/production growth, August PPI year-over-year decline narrowed to -2.9%, continuing to bottom and recover. Looking ahead, with further anti-involution and economic policy deployment, PPI is expected to marginally improve, driving corporate earnings improvements and potentially attracting continuous net inflows of allocation-type foreign capital.

In summary, if corporate earnings can continue improving combined with US bond yield declines, this may drive foreign capital returns to A-shares, significantly boosting market sentiment and attracting more incremental fund market entry.

**04 Summary**

Retail investable funds are massive in scale, with signs of a new round of deposit "migration" quietly emerging. Current bank deposit and wealth management product yields are at historical lows, while stock market money-making effects and intrinsic value continue improving, creating urgent need for higher return outlets for retail excess savings. Currently, retail investable funds are massive, but since June 2025 household net deposits have declined consecutively, with August non-bank deposits continuing year-over-year growth, quietly signaling new round deposit "migration." As individual investors gradually recognize stock intrinsic value improvements and significantly higher long-term holding returns, massive incremental funds may flow into stock and fund markets, potentially driving A-shares toward major upward trends.

How to measure incremental fund market entry? We divide incremental fund market entry indicators into entry potential and enthusiasm, with potential indicators as reverse indicators - higher values indicate less potential off-market fund increments; enthusiasm indicators as positive indicators - higher values indicate more active fund entry through various channels. Potential indicators primarily measure incremental fund market entry potential through household net deposits/A-share tradable market cap and M1 year-over-year time-series standardized score means. As of end-August 2025, incremental fund market entry potential indicator values were -0.02, still below historical means of 0.09. Enthusiasm indicators use margin financing balances, private funds, equity fund issuance shares, and non-bank deposit scale change time-series standardized scores to measure current fund entry enthusiasm. As of end-August 2025, incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicator values were 0.65, exceeding historical means of 0.10 but still below historical means plus 1 standard deviation.

Historical incremental fund market entry trends show potential indicators mostly operating within historical mean ±2 standard deviations ranges. Touching mean minus 2 standard deviations indicates significant incremental fund market entry potential when markets are often near relative bottoms. Touching mean plus 2 standard deviations suggests incremental fund market entry potential approaches extremes with limited subsequent new off-market funds. Incremental fund market entry enthusiasm indicators relatively lag entry potential indicators, with enthusiasm indicators surging and falling after fund entry potential touches mean plus 1 or 2 standard deviations. In 2013-2015 bull markets, incremental fund market entry paths showed "margin financing funds → bank-securities transfers → public funds" diffusion processes, though different channels had varying participation levels and contributions. In 2019-2021 bull markets, incremental funds initially also entered through margin financing channels but were quickly succeeded by newly issued public funds, with private fund channels also contributing certain increments.

Current round incremental fund market entry main characteristics and outlook show margin balances, private fund scales continuously climbing, individual investor account openings remaining active, and sector ETFs maintaining net subscriptions as main channels for current retail incremental fund market entry, with incremental funds forming positive feedback to some degree. Looking ahead, as money-making effects continue accumulating, equity-focused public fund issuance is expected to continue the relay, with increasing foreign capital return probabilities potentially becoming important incremental fund sources. Referencing previous two bull markets and using September 2024 as this bull market's starting point, assuming entry potential indicators rise to 1 standard deviation, we estimate potential incremental funds could still reach 5.4 trillion yuan.