Houthi missile strike hits Saudi Aramco refinery as Saudi Arabia plans large-scale counteroffensive.

According to CCTV News, Yemen's Houthi armed group stated late on October 3 local time that in response to Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa and other parts of Yemen, it used multiple ballistic missiles and drones to strike Aramco targets in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital, claiming the operation "successfully achieved its objectives," "hit the targets and caused fires."

Saudi Arabia has not yet issued an official statement on the attack. Unverified footage circulating on social media platform X shows thick black smoke rising from multiple locations at the Riyadh Aramco refinery.

Citing data from NASA's FIRMS satellite monitoring system, Turkish media outlet Türkiye Today reported that high-intensity thermal radiation signals were detected in the refinery area. The Riyadh refinery is one of Saudi Arabia's most important refining assets, with a daily processing capacity of approximately 130,000 barrels.

The Houthi statement also said that over the past 24 hours, Saudi Arabia launched 60 airstrikes and missile attacks on Yemen, and since the escalation began on September 3, Saudi Arabia has carried out a total of 1,410 airstrikes and missile attacks. The Houthis will continue to "respond to blockade with blockade" and "respond to escalation with escalation" until Saudi Arabia stops its attacks and lifts restrictions on ports and airports in Houthi-controlled areas.

Meanwhile, according to Axios citing two U.S. officials, Saudi Arabia is planning to launch a large-scale military operation against the Houthis in the coming days, targeting the coastal areas that have enabled the Houthis to control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint.

Saudi Arabia prepares major counteroffensive; U.S. will not participate in direct military action

According to Axios, preparations for the Saudi military operation have been underway for several weeks, and the plan was approved by senior Saudi leadership several days ago.

The report said the operation will be led by ground forces of the Yemeni government, supported by Saudi air power, with a focus on striking Houthi strategic strongholds along the coastal areas.

According to the U.S. officials, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman called U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth last Thursday to brief him on the operation and again requested that the U.S. conduct airstrikes on Houthi targets. U.S. officials said the United States "will not take kinetic military action at this time."

Trump reiterated in an interview with Time magazine last week that if an acceptable agreement with Iran cannot be reached before the midterm elections, he may escalate military strikes on Iran after the elections.

According to CCTV reports, the Houthis have recently intensified their offensive against government forces and announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia in support of the Yemeni government. The Houthis have captured strategic locations including the Yemeni port city of Mocha and Perim Island. The Yemeni government said on September 11 that the Houthis had taken control of the country's entire western coast and advanced their offensive into Lahij province in the south.

Iran's "45-day deadline" expires, raising risk of further conflict escalation

University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape warned that October 1 may mark a new phase in this round of conflict.

He noted that Iran's Supreme National Security Council decided on August 16 that if Washington fails to lift the maritime blockade on Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran will retain the option of launching a new round of attacks on U.S. forces. Pape wrote:

That deadline has now expired.

These multiple factors are interwoven and overlapping. The Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's core infrastructure, the imminent large-scale Saudi military operation, the stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the expiration of Iran's deadline have made prospects for short-term de-escalation in the Gulf region increasingly dim, and the related geopolitical risk premium is expected to continue sustaining heightened market attention to the stability of energy supplies.