On September 9, 2025, domestic futures main contracts exhibited mixed performance. Iron ore surged over 2%, while eggs, Shanghai gold, SC crude oil, and fuel oil gained more than 1%. Ferrosilicon, rapeseed oil, and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 1%. On the downside, polysilicon and apples declined over 3%, while butadiene rubber, No. 20 rubber (NR), and lithium carbonate fell more than 2%.
Guangda Futures Analysis: Steel mill resumption is lifting expectations for molten iron output. On Tuesday, iron ore once again broke through the 800 level, with the main contract surging 2% intraday, leading gains among ferrous metals. Last week's daily average molten iron output declined significantly, but with recent steel mill resumptions, this week may see improvement expectations, providing demand support. Additionally, global iron ore shipments have decreased, warranting attention to subsequent shipping data from Australia and Brazil. However, considering the continuous decline in steel mill profits, attention should be paid to whether negative feedback will transmit to the raw materials sector and whether steel mills will proactively reduce production. Amid mixed bullish and bearish factors, iron ore prices are expected to show volatile movement in the short term.
Spot and futures markets resonated, with mainstream spot varieties at ports running strong. Current prices show PB fines at 786 (up 4), PB lumps at 928 (up 2), Carajas fines at 900 (up 3), and Super Special Fines at 692 (up 4). Due to significant events causing temporary production restrictions at steel mills, last week's daily average molten iron output declined rapidly, falling 112,900 tons week-on-week to 2.2884 million tons. Reviewing historical events from previous years, raw material demand tends to rise in the short term after steel mill resumption, and this week's molten iron output may gradually recover to peak season levels.
On the supply side, according to Mysteel data, global iron ore shipments totaled 27.562 million tons from September 1-7, down 8.006 million tons week-on-week. Australia and Brazil's combined iron ore shipments reached 23.296 million tons, declining 5.725 million tons week-on-week. VALE's shipment volume fell significantly after reaching highs, leading to decreased Brazilian shipments. Other countries' shipments also declined as South Africa and Canada reduced their shipments, causing global iron ore shipments to retreat from high levels.
In summary, iron ore prices receive short-term support. Against the backdrop of the "Golden September" steel production peak season, attention should be focused on the realization of steel mill demand and profit recovery.