Against the backdrop of the rising strategic importance of global food security, potash, as a key element in agricultural production, continues to face tight supply-demand dynamics, with prices steadily climbing. According to data from BaiChuan YingFu, as of November 10, the domestic average price of potassium chloride reached 3,237 yuan per ton, up 28.66% from the beginning of the year and 34.37% year-on-year. On November 7, the gross profit margin for the potassium chloride industry stood at 1,164 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 400 yuan per ton compared to the same period last year.

"Potash prices are currently showing a slight upward trend, with the most significant increases observed in Northeast China, as low-priced inventory gradually diminishes. Leading domestic potash producers, leveraging their resource control, cost advantages, and production capacity, are expected to sustain earnings growth in the fourth quarter," said a senior industry researcher.

Guohai Securities noted in a research report that against the backdrop of population growth and increasing concerns over food security, global potash demand is projected to grow steadily at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2025 to 2027. On the supply side, limited new capacity additions are expected before the end of 2026, with major overseas projects such as BHP's facing high per-ton investment costs. Additionally, existing mines operated by industry giants are gradually entering marginal extraction phases, leading to higher mining difficulties and costs. This suggests that the current high-potash market conditions may persist in the medium term.

Currently, China is in the off-season for fertilizer use. However, with the gradual start of autumn fertilizer demand and supportive factors such as rising demand from international markets like India, potash prices are expected to remain robust in the short term.

CICC highlighted in a report that potash market conditions have continued to improve since 2025. With limited new capacity additions in 2025-26 and low domestic inventory levels, the current high-potash cycle may have prolonged sustainability, potentially benefiting listed companies' earnings performance.

**Hong Kong-listed potash concept stocks:** - **MIGAO GROUP (09879)**: One of China's leading potash companies, MIGAO GROUP operates an integrated business model covering procurement, manufacturing, processing, and sales. It offers a comprehensive product line, including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, and compound fertilizers, widely used in agriculture to enhance crop yields and quality. According to Frost & Sullivan, MIGAO ranked fourth in China by potash sales in 2023 and third among non-potash reserve-based enterprises, making it the only privately-owned company among China's top five potash producers.

- **SINOFERT (00297)**: Net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 rose 6% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 19.37 billion yuan and net profit at 1.36 billion yuan. On September 9, 2025, SINOFERT renewed its cooperation memorandum with Jordan's Arab Potash Company (APC) for 2026-2028, reinforcing its role as one of China's primary potash importers and distributors.

- **CHINA XLX FERT (01866)**: Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17.96 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders fell 12.8% to 840 million yuan. The decline was attributed to lower urea prices and systematic maintenance at its Jiujiang, Xinxiang, and Manas bases, which reduced core product output by approximately 269,000 tons (down 19% YoY), impacting profits by about 230 million yuan. However, new projects, such as the Phase II launch at Jiujiang, are expected to lower production costs by 10%, with further reductions anticipated after the completion of Xinxiang's chemical materials project by year-end.

- **CHINA BLUECHEM (03983)**: A leading domestic producer of fertilizers and methanol, CHINA BLUECHEM operates production bases in Hainan, Hubei, and Heilongjiang. As of December 31, 2023, its total designed capacity included 1.84 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of phosphate and compound fertilizers, 1.4 million tons of methanol, and 270,000 tons of acrylonitrile series products. The company is expanding its upstream presence by investing in phosphate resources through subsidiaries.