Abstract

MINISO Group Holding Limited will report quarterly results on August 28, 2026 Pre-Mkt, and investors are watching revenue growth, margin resilience, and EPS delivery against management’s projections and market expectations.

Market Forecast

The company’s current-quarter projections indicate revenue of RMB 5.82 billion, up 19.57% year over year, EBIT of RMB 0.79 billion, up 3.71% year over year, and adjusted EPS of RMB 2.12 per ADS, up 21.20% year over year; there is no formal guidance on gross profit margin or net profit margin. Within the business mix, the core MINISO brand remains the primary driver and benefits from stable product mix and store productivity metrics, while management’s outlook implies continued solid consumer engagement and controlled operating expenses. The most promising segment is the TOP TOY brand, which delivered RMB 0.51 billion last quarter; at the group level, revenue expanded 28.49% year over year in the prior quarter, underscoring sustained demand momentum supporting this growth platform.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, MINISO Group Holding Limited delivered revenue of RMB 5.69 billion (up 28.49% year over year), a gross profit margin of 43.32%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.25 billion, a net profit margin of 21.99%, and adjusted EPS of RMB 1.80 per ADS (down 4.26% year over year). A notable feature was the quarter-on-quarter rebound in net profit attributable to the parent company, which increased 983.76%, highlighting a sharp profit inflection relative to the prior quarter. By business line, the MINISO brand contributed RMB 5.17 billion and the TOP TOY brand contributed RMB 0.51 billion, while overall group revenue advanced 28.49% year over year on healthy demand and higher store productivity.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core MINISO brand momentum and earnings bridge

The company’s guidance framework points to revenue of RMB 5.82 billion this quarter, up 19.57% year over year, with adjusted EPS of RMB 2.12 per ADS, up 21.20% year over year. Given last quarter’s gross profit margin of 43.32% and net margin of 21.99%, the operating bridge this quarter will likely depend on product-mix firmness in high-turn, higher-margin categories and continued discipline in promotions. The pre-announced first-half revenue growth of approximately 22% to 23% year over year indicates that overall demand remains resilient through June, and it provides a constructive backdrop for the MINISO brand’s sales throughput in the current report. Execution on store efficiency remains central: the core brand’s large base and share of total revenue (about 91% last quarter) mean small changes in average ticket or conversion can visibly influence consolidated results. On the cost side, stability in procurement and logistics supports margin preservation, although wage and rent inflation in certain overseas markets can add noise to the quarterly margin print. Management’s EBIT projection of RMB 0.79 billion, up 3.71% year over year, embeds a more conservative margin mix versus top-line growth; that gap indicates the company is prioritizing traffic and share capture while holding gross margin broadly steady rather than pushing price. The reported 983.76% quarter-on-quarter net profit surge last quarter creates a high sequential base effect, so investors should focus on year-over-year comparability for a cleaner read on operating progress this quarter. With adjusted EPS forecast to grow faster than revenue, operating leverage and lower below-the-line volatility compared with the prior quarter should be constructive supports to per-share earnings.

TOP TOY brand and growth option value

TOP TOY contributed RMB 0.51 billion last quarter and serves as a platform for incremental growth and category expansion. The company’s group revenue trajectory and first-half outlook suggest that consumer appetite for curated, novelty-driven product lines remains healthy, helping this segment maintain momentum even as the macro environment varies across regions. Store network quality and location selection matter more than raw store count for this brand: the best-performing doors generally benefit from high footfall and frequent product refresh, which together sustain sell-through and reduce markdown risk. Margin behavior here will be an important watch item: while the segment can deliver attractive gross margin on character IP and collectibles, variability can arise from licensing fees, launch cadence, and initial marketing investment. Given the strong contribution of the MINISO brand to overall scale, management can pace TOP TOY’s expansion to safeguard consolidated profitability while still leaning into categories with fast turns and favorable ticket sizes. Analysts’ commentaries in recent months have acknowledged that operating-margin recovery across the group may progress more gradually than earlier anticipated; for TOP TOY, that implies a focus on disciplined rollout, tighter inventory cycles, and a measured promotional approach to support the margin structure. The upside case for the segment in the current quarter is anchored in solid low- to mid-20% consolidated revenue growth in the first half and the company’s continued emphasis on newness and IP-driven merchandising, which can support steady traffic and cross-sell into adjacent categories.

What will move the stock this quarter

Earnings delivery versus the company’s own projections is the primary catalyst. Revenue of RMB 5.82 billion and EPS of RMB 2.12 per ADS are the markers; any material beat or miss on these figures will likely drive immediate price reaction. Margin color will be critical for sentiment even though formal guidance is not provided: investors will parse gross margin drivers (mix, pricing discipline, procurement) and net margin sustainability against last quarter’s 43.32% and 21.99% prints, respectively, to calibrate the trajectory for fiscal second half. Operating expenses will also be in focus; scaling in overseas markets improves long-term efficiency but can raise near-term selling and administrative expenses, and investors will look for signs that productivity gains offset higher footprint costs. The quarter-on-quarter swing in net profit last quarter was amplified by non-operating items; this quarter, a cleaner below-the-line contribution would allow the market to ascribe more weight to the core earnings power that underpins the full-year outlook. Cash generation and working-capital discipline are secondary but meaningful supports for valuation; inventory turns and payables cycles that align with the current sales run-rate will help validate that expansion is tracking with demand. Finally, management’s commentary on the second-half cadence—especially on store-opening plans, product refresh rhythm, and any anticipated normalization of promotional intensity—will set the tone for how investors bridge from this quarter’s print to the next, and could overshadow small variances in single-line items.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of published institutional commentary in the past six months is predominantly bullish. Among the collected views, multiple houses maintain Buy or Outperform stances and, in several cases, reaffirm constructive medium-term narratives while adjusting near-term targets to reflect a slower-than-previously-expected margin recovery path. On our count, bullish opinions substantially outnumber bearish ones in the reviewed period, with positive ratings from several well-known institutions and no outright Sell calls in the set analyzed.

One camp of analysts highlights valuation support and earnings resilience. A major global broker maintained its Buy rating while revising its price target to reflect updated modeling for operating margin normalization; their note emphasizes that improving performance in overseas markets should help slow the pace of margin compression and set the stage for a rebound in the next year. This stance aligns with the company’s forecast of RMB 5.82 billion in quarterly revenue, up 19.57% year over year, and adjusted EPS of RMB 2.12 per ADS, up 21.20% year over year, which together point to continued top-line strength and a measured, albeit slower, recovery in profitability. Another large international bank also maintains a Buy rating, arguing that the stock’s multiple already discounts narrower operating margin and modest adjusted net profit growth, while citing stronger-than-peer sales growth trends; their read-through from the company’s first-half pre-announcement supports the case for sustained mid-teens to low-20% revenue growth, even as operating expenses move higher in the near term to support overseas scaling.

Some analysts have fine-tuned targets to reflect tactical adjustments while remaining constructive. A leading Japanese brokerage recently kept a Buy rating while reducing its target to account for a slower margin recovery track, reaffirming that the company’s brand, product cadence, and international footprint provide durable levers for compounding revenue and earnings over the medium term. A large China-based investment bank reiterated its Outperform stance while lowering its target price, pointing to the updated interim outlook that includes first-half revenue up around 22% to 23% year over year and period profit up approximately 4% to 6% year over year; they expect second-half initiatives around product mix and store portfolio optimization to progressively support margins. A global investment and corporate bank with a research franchise continues to see scope for operating-profit-margin improvement next year, noting that preliminary results were better than feared given a compressed valuation and that revenue and same-store sales growth trends remained solid against a cautious consumption backdrop.

The majority view’s analytical core is consistent across coverage: revenue visibility is relatively high thanks to a diversified channel and geography mix, with the company’s own current-quarter projections providing specific anchors for top-line and EPS. Where analysts diverge is on the slope and timing of margin repair. The more cautious bullish arguments acknowledge that operating-margin recovery could lag prior expectations, which is reflected in tempered EBIT growth of 3.71% year over year in the current-quarter forecast, but they emphasize that the company’s ability to grow adjusted EPS faster than sales illustrates stabilizing operating leverage and less volatile below-the-line items compared with the prior quarter. Consensus also credits management with maintaining discipline on inventory and promotions, supporting a gross margin that analysts expect to remain broadly stable relative to recent quarters, absent unexpected shifts in product or regional mix.

From a market-reaction standpoint, the bullish camp is looking for confirmation on three points to sustain or expand multiples. First is execution against the RMB 5.82 billion revenue and RMB 2.12 EPS markers; even modest outperformance would bolster confidence in the second-half trajectory. Second is margin commentary that points to consistency rather than reacceleration—flat to slightly better than last quarter’s 43.32% gross margin and 21.99% net margin would likely be taken positively given concerns about operating costs in newer markets. Third is clarity on the cadence of non-operating contributions: because last quarter’s 983.76% quarter-on-quarter net profit surge was heavily influenced by valuation and investment effects, a cleaner, operation-led earnings print this quarter would help reiterate core profitability and reduce the perceived risk premium around earnings quality.

In summary, the majority of analysts remain constructive, citing solid revenue growth, continued brand traction, and improving operating consistency, even as they moderate near-term margin expectations. The aggregated bullish perspective maps closely to the company’s own forecast for double-digit revenue and EPS growth this quarter, and it frames this print as a checkpoint on a gradual normalization path rather than a catalyst for a dramatic margin step-up. Provided the company delivers near or modestly above its revenue and EPS projections and demonstrates steadiness in gross margin, the bullish camp expects investor sentiment to lean favorable and the stock to trade on the durability of growth rather than on transitory below-the-line items.