As October 2025 progresses with October 5th approaching, domestic markets are experiencing comprehensive declines across oil, pork, and grain prices. This fourth quarter downturn is creating increased market risks for farmers, with implications for household economies nationwide.

**Grain Price Decline Accelerates**

Since the National Day holiday period, grain prices have entered a comprehensive decline phase. Corn procurement prices at the grassroots level have dropped for consecutive days, reaching new lows since the beginning of this year. The downward pressure on grain prices stems from farmers' increased willingness to sell, creating concentrated market pressure as autumn harvests reach peak supply levels.

Processing enterprises in production areas are taking advantage of this situation by lowering procurement prices to reduce costs. Given the current selling sentiment among farmers, grain price recovery in the short term appears unlikely.

**Pork Prices Drop Below Key Thresholds**

Live pig prices have also experienced sustained declines, with mainstream procurement prices falling below 14 yuan per kilogram across both major sales and production regions. Some areas have seen prices drop below 13 yuan per kilogram, entering the 12-yuan range.

This price decline occurs despite the return of seasonal consumption peak periods, indicating that consumer demand has not provided sufficient support for price recovery. The substantial scale of the grassroots pig market in the fourth quarter suggests continued downward pressure on prices through mid-October.

**Oil Price Outlook Remains Bearish**

October has brought new challenges to oil markets as OPEC+ member countries implement additional crude oil production increases. The expansion of crude oil supply, combined with potential further increases as major oil-producing countries compete for market share, creates a supply surplus situation that pressures prices downward.

China's crude oil import volumes have declined in 2025 due to slowing economic growth, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI continues to contract, weakening crude oil consumption demand. This creates a double negative impact on international oil prices.

The upcoming refined oil price adjustment scheduled for October 13th at 24:00 is likely to result in further price decreases.

**Storage Risk Warning for Farmers**

As the 2025 autumn grain harvest concludes, farmers face a critical storage challenge. Improper grain storage during autumn months could lead to spoilage and mold damage, significantly impacting selling profits. Farmers are advised to implement proper corn handling procedures, including regular turning and repositioning of stored grain to prevent moisture-related damage.

**Market Outlook**

The coordinated decline across oil, pork, and grain markets reflects broader economic adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2025. While these price movements create immediate challenges for agricultural producers, the implementation of supportive economic policies may help mitigate longer-term impacts on the agricultural sector.

Market participants should prepare for continued volatility across these commodity sectors as supply and demand dynamics continue to evolve through the remainder of the year.