Guotai Haitong's Qin Heping: Don't Be Frightened by the "45% Freeze" Headline, Core Semiconductor Stocks Are Already Oversold

Deep News
11/06

For stock trading, rely on Jin Qilin analyst research reports — authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! Source: Guotai Haitong. Last night, the U.S. AI sector suffered another sell-off, triggered by a single line from Morgan Stanley: "45% of data centers face a freeze." Our assessment: the actual impact on data center construction is far smaller than what the market is currently pricing in.

First, the new Texas governor said "pause new permits," not "halt projects under construction." Enochosa made it clear that data centers already being built will not be stopped. Gavin Baker judges that projects under construction essentially cover all of 2027 and very likely most of 2028 capacity, and Musk quickly reposted this view. JPMorgan strategists likewise believe the risk is concentrated in 2028: of the projected 96GW of new capacity, roughly 37.5GW could be "paused." This is delay and added conditions, not shutdown.

Second, campaign manifestos are not legal commitments. A governor's executive order can only pause permits; canceling about $1.3 billion in tax breaks, giving local communities a voice, and addressing grid costs all require state legislature action, and Republicans still hold leverage in the state legislature.

Third, the alignment of interests dictates that no one will flip the table. Data centers and Texas's energy endowments are naturally complementary, backed by blue-collar jobs, property taxes, and a vast array of stakeholders. What Democrats want is tax payments, no upward pressure on residential electricity prices, no competition for residents' water, and the use of union labor — this is about redistributing the pie. Do not interpret this in an extreme way as Democrats being anti-data center; the only thing they are fundamentalist about opposing is the Republican Party led by Trump.

Fourth, the power of technological progress does not shift with election cycles. AMD CEO Su Zifeng said bluntly that "the market is sometimes a bit short-sighted": computing in many respects equals intelligence — the more compute power, the smarter the enterprise and the faster the business runs; if you agree with this, you must invest now for three to five years or even longer ahead. She is looking "beyond the horizon," where AI and superintelligence will permeate every aspect of life and business. Regional construction delays do not equal a decline in AI compute demand; the market conflated the two, which led to the mistaken sell-off over the past two days. Peter Lynch said: "Every once in a while the market believes this time it's really over, with reasons changing round after round, but no one has ever made money betting on doomsday." Sina statement: This message is reposted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with its views or confirms its description. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10