Analyst Highlights Tech Sector's Long-Term Prospects Amidst Short-Term Volatility, Sees Compelling Value in Hong Kong Stocks

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The technology sector in A-shares has recently undergone a correction following a robust rally, leading to noticeable market sentiment divergence. This raises questions about whether the AI-driven market surge has peaked, what structural opportunities might emerge in the second half of the year, and if there are new technological frontiers beyond AI worth monitoring.

Kong Rong, Deputy General Manager of the Research Institute and Chief Overseas Analyst at Guolian Minsheng Securities, addressed these investor concerns directly. She acknowledged that the tech sector will experience adjustments but emphasized that such phases still present allocation opportunities. The core logic supporting this view is the non-linear revenue growth emerging from AI commercialization, indicating the industry has entered a genuine "implementation phase."

Addressing the market's fear of further gains, Kong stated that while a degree of correction is expected, the outlook for the technology sector remains positive. She attributes this fundamentally to the substantive progress in AI commercialization.

Citing examples like Anthropic and OpenAI, she noted, "Their Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is growing rapidly, demonstrating that AI already possesses strong commercial viability. This supports the continuation of the tech market trend."

Kong believes that over the past three years, the market was largely in an "anticipation" phase, whereas this year investors are finally witnessing AI transition from an investment period to a production period. "The biggest difference is moving from three years of anticipation to actually seeing AI commercialization demonstrate strong capability this year," she explained.

She defines the current period as a "golden time for global technology" and stresses that "after the adjustment, it remains an opportune time for allocation."

Regarding potential structural rotations within the AI theme for the latter half of the year, Kong provided specific investment leads.

"For hardware this year, the theme remains—what's in short supply will rise," Kong said, listing several segments: storage, optical modules, CPUs, PCBs, and MLCCs. "These all revolve around the logic of implementation, commercialization, and tight upstream demand."

She highlighted a more long-term hardware direction: power and energy. "Data center construction involves securing land first, then power. Electricity is crucial, especially for data center development in North America. This is a very long-term trend."

Kong reiterated her previous view on the divergence within software stocks. She pointed out that the enhancement of AI and Agent capabilities will impact tool-based, low-barrier software companies. However, companies focused on data warehousing, identity authentication, and security, which possess strong barriers, are seeing increasing demand and will continue to present opportunities.

Beyond the main AI narrative, Kong emphasized two new technological directions.

The first is the space economy. "SpaceX has brought a new opportunity," Kong said. While space might sound like science fiction to many, or even be perceived as Elon Musk creating a "bubble," careful study reveals it has significant commercial logic and is a feasible future development.

The second is Physical AI/World Models. Kong revealed that she and her team have been accumulating research and exploring opportunities in this area. "It digitizes our real world for simulation and testing, applicable in scenarios like autonomous driving and robotics." She mentioned that NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang discussed the concept of Physical AI last year. "This is a very important direction following large language models."

She admitted the concept might sound reminiscent of the earlier "metaverse" hype, but from an industrial substance perspective, its definition and direction are different. It is not merely a concept but a crucial direction for the evolution of future models.

Regarding allocation across different markets domestically and overseas, Kong suggested adhering to a principle: invest in the best companies within a given field. She believes that while overseas companies are indeed leading in certain areas, Chinese companies also possess their own competitive advantages.

She particularly emphasized, "The companies in the Hong Kong stock market are simply too cheap." Kong pointed out that although some new tech companies in Hong Kong have seen significant gains this year, many large platform companies have underperformed, and valuations remain reasonable. "Following the share price and market performance in overseas markets, I believe Hong Kong stocks have greater potential ahead."

For the widespread investor anxiety about missing out, she advised adjusting one's mindset and controlling risk. Even with high unrealized gains in the short term, the ability to convert them into actual profits depends on risk management. The ultimate winners are those who endure the longest.

"Investors should build their own judgment framework around the direction of global industrial evolution, rather than being swayed by short-term sentiment. We remain optimistic about this epic golden opportunity in global technology," Kong concluded.

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