According to a recent research report by Citigroup, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ have been gradually easing oil production restrictions since April this year, leading to sustained market supply growth. This trend aligns with the long-standing policy direction of lowering energy prices advocated by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, Citi expects global crude markets to remain weak in the coming quarters, with Brent crude prices likely hovering around $60 per barrel until at least the U.S. midterm elections next year.

The report notes that prices above $60 per barrel could prompt OPEC+ to continue increasing output, with Saudi Arabia expected to play a key leadership role in stabilizing supply-demand dynamics and preventing another sharp price surge. Citi reiterated its long-term view that Brent crude is unlikely to sustain below $60, as this level is often seen by the market as a buying opportunity.

Key reasons include lower oil prices providing greater policy flexibility for the U.S. to impose sanctions, replenish strategic petroleum reserves, and influence OPEC+ production adjustments. Additionally, excessively low prices would not align with U.S. strategic goals of maintaining global energy influence in the medium term.

Citi further highlighted that as the Trump administration prepares for the November 2025 midterm elections and grapples with economic pressures from high domestic interest rates, its policy focus may increasingly shift toward curbing overall commodity prices. The most probable paths to achieve this include pushing for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. If unsuccessful, Washington may exert greater diplomatic pressure on OPEC+ to further boost output and suppress global oil prices.

The bank emphasized that future oil market trends will hinge on geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production strategies, and shifts in U.S. domestic policies. Market participants should closely monitor subsequent actions by major oil producers and U.S. policy signals in the global energy market.