Welcome back, everyone. We hope you enjoyed the Mid-Autumn Festival. Markets are about to reopen, but the coming week has only three trading days, and many of you likely took extra time off, checking quotes while traveling. Let us briefly review the major events over the Mid-Autumn holiday and look at the latest views from analysts.
Major Events Over the Mid-Autumn Holiday
China and the United States reached an eight-point consensus. First, both sides agreed to build a constructive strategic relationship of stability based on respect, fairness, and reciprocity. Second, both sides agreed to support each other in hosting the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting and the G20 Leaders' Summit, with both heads of state intending to attend the meetings hosted by the other side. Third, the two heads of state agreed that Iran should fulfill its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and no country or institution should impose tolls on international waterways. Fourth, the two heads of state recalled that China and the United States were allies during World War II, fighting side by side to win the war. Fifth, the two heads of state recognized the positive role of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and the results of consultations between the two sides' economic and trade teams, including establishing and advancing mechanisms such as the Trade Council, reaching a "30 billion US dollars" reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement, and extending the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations, and instructed that these be implemented. Sixth, China-US counter-narcotics law enforcement cooperation has produced visible results. Recently, the two sides worked closely together to jointly crack down on multiple cases involving new psychoactive substances and precursor chemicals, arresting dozens of suspects in both countries. Seventh, both sides agreed to establish a China-US artificial intelligence dialogue to exchange views on AI-related risks and benefits. The next dialogue will be held in November this year. Both sides agreed to establish a communication channel for AI incidents. Eighth, the US side welcomed the arrival of a pair of giant pandas leased by China to the Atlanta Zoo.
US Media: Trump Rejected Iran's Proposal to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Within Seven Days
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 25, citing several US officials, that US President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and told his aides he might resume bombing Iran after the US midterm elections in November. The report said Trump stated publicly that Iran has been "begging" for a deal after the US midterm elections, including dismantling Iran's nuclear program.
Goldman Sachs Expects Hyperscaler AI Capital Expenditure to Grow Over 50% to 1.2 Trillion US Dollars Next Year
Goldman Sachs strategists expect the five largest US hyperscalers to increase spending on AI infrastructure by more than 50% next year, reaching 1.2 trillion US dollars. A team led by Ryan Hammond said in a report that this figure is higher than Wall Street's consensus estimate of 1.1 trillion US dollars for 2027 capital expenditure. The team said that for these investments to break even, these companies would need to generate about 300 billion US dollars in AI revenue annually in the coming years. Although the scale of spending will increase significantly next year, the growth rate of capital expenditure is expected to slow. Goldman Sachs strategists expect hyperscaler capital expenditure growth to slow from nearly 100% this year to 54% in 2027, and further slow to 12% in 2028, when capital expenditure is expected to reach 1.4 trillion US dollars.
Tesla Reportedly Increased Optimus Humanoid Robot Production by About 10 Times in Recent Months
According to media reports, Tesla has increased production of its Optimus humanoid robot by about ten times in recent months, but the company is still striving to achieve large-scale reliable production. People familiar with the project said its production line is facing issues with the robot's complex hands, automation equipment, and supplier constraints. Last month, Tesla produced several hundred robots per week.
Latest Views from Ten Major Brokerages
1. CITIC Securities: Possible Paths for Index Recovery
US stocks hit new highs driven by a new round of application diffusion and hardware recovery, and external markets should no longer be considered a factor affecting A-shares. Although sentiment is temporarily relatively depressed, we still maintain our judgment of a volatile A-share market this year. The period around third-quarter earnings is the last offensive window of the year, and the probability of the index recovering within the year is actually much greater than hitting new lows. In fact, with earnings trending upward, macro risks becoming explicit, and sentiment already depressed, the possibility of a significant index adjustment is very small. At the same time, the conditions for the Shanghai Composite Index to recover are not as demanding as imagined. We conducted scenario tests on five possible paths for the Shanghai Composite Index to recover within the year. Given industry prosperity and limited short-term incremental capital, an upward structure led by technology leaders, resources and energy chemicals, and financial heavyweights best balances fundamentals and liquidity. During the market's hesitation period, one should remain optimistic, and in terms of allocation, respond with AI plus energy chemicals.
2. CITIC Construction Investment Strategy: Shrinking Volume Before the Holiday, Recovery After
The main reason for the shrinking A-share volume this week is trading and seasonal factors. After the US visit benefits were realized, expectations converged, and with the dual holidays approaching, a restorative rebound is expected after the holiday. The overseas main theme has shifted to "re-acceleration plus re-inflation plus re-tightening." The US economy is moving from K-shaped divergence toward full recovery, but cost pressures remain, long-end rates are surging, and real rates are rising. Europe and Japan are following with rate hikes, and global financial conditions are tightening. A relatively strong RMB exchange rate provides some buffer, but the constraint of tightening external liquidity cannot be fully removed in the short term. At the allocation level, emphasize balance and flexibility, with key sectors including AI computing power, industrial metals, non-bank financials, banks, coal, oil, and oil shipping.
3. Soochow Strategy: The "Seasonal Effect" of the National Day Holiday
Combined with the seasonal pattern of the "National Day effect," the market has now entered a sentiment recovery phase, and the rebound will continue. If major positive news emerges later at the AI or macro level, the rebound expectations can be revised upward. In terms of allocation direction, AI hardware has solid immediate prosperity, long-term growth has not been disproven, and stock prices have adjusted relatively fully, making it still an important lever for obtaining excess returns. Focus on: domestic computing power and the chip and semiconductor industry chain, PCB chain, servers, liquid cooling, cloud/computing power leasing, optical modules, etc. In addition, with the development of the AI industry and the continuous increase in large model penetration, attention should be paid to opportunities in the midstream and downstream of AI. One can watch supporting tools brought by AI application penetration, AI middle-layer tracks, and Workflow/Agent orchestration platforms with a solid native SaaS foundation.
4. Guojin Strategy: Several Important Observations
The lagging performance of China-related hardware assets in this rebound may not be solely due to positioning reasons, but may be a common global characteristic, reflecting the logic of capital flowing back to the United States under a "strong dollar, high interest rates" environment. Currently, different assets are sensitive to interest rates in different ways. Energy remains the asset most able to escape interest rate interference, while the suppressing factors for non-ferrous metals may have passed their most pessimistic point. At present, trend opportunities in the market remain unclear, and structural responses remain the main approach.
5. Zhongtai Strategy: Hold Stocks Through the Holiday
The Nasdaq hitting new highs and A-share technology being relatively weak form a clear divergence. Global AI fundamentals are still improving, while short-term domestic pricing is more affected by Middle East variables, pre-holiday positioning, and style gaming. Current turnover has fallen to a low level, concentrated selling is largely complete, and long-term funds are still absorbing at the bottom. Domestic scientific innovation has historically started later than overseas, but once the market starts, its speed and elasticity are usually higher. Last week's turnover already fell to a stage low, closer to the last round of concentrated position reduction before the holiday. If institutions increase technology positions again after the holiday, the cost of chasing gains will instead rise, and the current positioning structure is more favorable for holding in advance. The cost-effectiveness of continuing to reduce technology exposure has declined, and "holding stocks through the holiday" remains the current baseline recommendation.
6. GF Strategy: "Hold Cash" or "Hold Stocks" for the Holiday?
First, corresponding to the remaining three trading days before the holiday, the necessity of further reducing positions at this point is not strong, and doing so may instead miss potential rebound opportunities after the holiday. After the market shrank volume by 50% from its July high, volume energy has somewhat stabilized; after the holiday, trading volume is expected to recover, and an effective rebound is more likely at this level. In addition to the "calendar effect," historical post-holiday market performance is mainly affected by incremental information during the holiday. Looking ahead to the China and overseas economic and policy environment in 2026, the market has already fully anticipated and priced in several negative factors, and the news flow during the 2026 National Day holiday is expected to be generally stable. Historically, in the first week after the holiday, TMT has the highest probability of outperforming the All-A index among major style indices. Combined with this year's actual style performance, the market in October is expected to gradually return to prosperity-based pricing. If the growth style adjusts again in the last week before the holiday, it would provide a rare layout opportunity for the fourth quarter, given the prosperity advantage of third-quarter earnings and a series of catalysts in the AI industry chain.
7. China Galaxy Strategy: Three Major Focus Points for A-Shares Around the Long Holiday
At the capital level, funds that stayed on the sidelines before the holiday due to risk aversion will gradually flow back, which will marginally improve market trading activity. However, there are many overseas disturbances, and the migration of household savings to the equity market requires a clearer wealth effect to catalyze it. The conditions for incremental entry in the short term still need time to observe. At the pricing logic level, the market enters the third-quarter earnings verification window in October. At the policy level, expectations for growth-stabilizing and market-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter are rising. In the third-quarter meeting of the PBOC Monetary Policy Committee, the wording "cross-cycle" was removed from the monetary policy stance, with greater emphasis on "counter-cyclical" adjustment. The meeting proposed for the first time to strengthen financial support for the construction of the "six networks," and the current important policy increment focuses on the layout of the six networks. Policy signals on the real estate side are intensively catalyzing, and attention should be paid to the pace of subsequent detailed rules and the room for policy relaxation in core cities. Regarding external risks, key disturbance variables to track include: first, high US Treasury yields will continue to disturb global high-valuation growth assets. Second, repeated overseas geopolitical conflicts drive international oil price volatility, while indirectly strengthening upward pressure on US Treasury yields through inflation expectations. As the US midterm elections approach, overseas political uncertainty may amplify short-term market volatility. Overall, A-shares are expected to show a recovery trend, but the focus may still be structural and rotational recovery.
8. Everbright Strategy: Weak Pre-Holiday Sentiment, Market May Remain Range-Bound
Affected by weakening market sentiment and declining risk appetite, the A-share market pulled back this week, with major broad-based indices generally falling. The market is likely to continue a range-bound consolidation pattern before the holiday. On one hand, after the Federal Reserve's rate hike "shoe dropped," the external liquidity concerns that previously weighed on the market have been temporarily eased; China-US economic and trade consultations have released positive signals; domestic growth-stabilizing policies continue to exert force, and the central bank's attitude toward liquidity support is clear; August production-side data improved, providing fundamental support for the market. On the other hand, under the Fed's hawkish stance, rate hike expectations remain within the year, and the overseas high interest rate environment will be difficult to eliminate in the short term as a valuation constraint on high-valuation growth sectors; domestic consumption remains weak, and domestic demand recovery still requires further policy efforts; with the dual holidays approaching, willingness to enter the market is insufficient, and pre-holiday turnover is likely to remain subdued.
9. Zheshang Strategy: Maintain Confidence in the Intermediate Rebound
Although the market pulled back this week due to holiday effects, considering international conditions, global stock index trends, and the technical patterns of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, we are not pessimistic about the outlook. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index still holds the lower edge of the 3850-4000 point range and still has momentum for a volatile rebound; the STAR 50 Index has rebounded by nearly 13% at its maximum since last week, and this week's pullback still falls within the category of a strong adjustment; during the same period, the leading Hang Seng Tech Index has already shown clear bottoming characteristics. In summary, we believe the intermediate rebound that began in mid-September is still likely to continue. In terms of allocation, based on the judgment that "short-term disturbances do not change the big picture, and the outlook remains an intermediate rebound," we recommend: in terms of timing, keep the current medium-term position unchanged, do not be affected by holiday effects before the holiday, and appropriately add positions on dips after the holiday; in terms of sectors, we still recommend choosing sectors and industries that fell more earlier, such as dual innovation, Hang Seng Tech, non-bank financials, media, and computers, and appropriately balance the allocation, continuing to participate in this rebound with a balanced structure.
10. Founder Securities: Actively Seize the Rebound Window
The market rose first and then fell last week, with the latter half mainly affected by holiday effects and factors such as rising oil prices and US Treasury yields. This rebound has been relatively difficult, but now is still a window to actively seize rebound opportunities. The rebound process will not happen all at once, and a "two steps forward, one step back" volatile upward trend is the main tone. It is recommended to build positions on dips. Pay attention to three allocation opportunities: first, after entering October, technology catalysts increase, the AI industry trend and prosperity remain solid, and attention should be paid to changes in public fund holdings announced in October; second, after oil prices fall, focus on non-ferrous metals plus chemicals related to core resources; third, non-bank financials, which respond most directly to monetary policy changes, have a good match between performance and valuation, and can stabilize the index.