JPMorgan released a research report stating that a conference call with BYD COMPANY revealed three new positive surprises: domestic sales guidance exceeding expectations, significant upside potential for overseas sales, and new models driving a marked improvement in profitability. The bank set a target price of HKD 120 and maintained an "Overweight" rating.
The report noted that BYD's management currently guides for domestic sales of 3.5 to 4 million vehicles this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 0% to 14%, depending on competitive dynamics in the Chinese market. This guidance is higher than JPMorgan's forecast of 3.5 million vehicles, which implied flat year-on-year growth. Although the guidance range is wide, the bank believes it demonstrates management's increased confidence in order performance for new models featuring ultra-fast charging technology launched at the Beijing Auto Show.
Regarding overseas markets, while BYD reiterated its sales target of 1.5 million vehicles, a 50% year-on-year increase, management indicated potential for upward revision due to strong demand, especially following recent increases in oil prices. Management further emphasized that the company's own fleet of eight vessels is ready and will support this target.
The report stated that BYD's new models equipped with flash-charging technology are driving an improvement in the profitability of its domestic business, a factor investors may not yet fully appreciate. The bank estimates that by the fourth quarter of 2026, over 30% of domestic sales will come from new models, mostly priced above RMB 200,000. This compares to approximately 70% of sales in 2025 being concentrated in price points below RMB 150,000. According to the bank's estimates, all else being equal, the average selling price or profit contribution per vehicle could increase by more than RMB 5,000, representing an effective measure to mitigate cost inflation and price competition.