Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that JIUMAOJIU's (09922) core growth driver stems from the accelerated rollout of Tai Er's "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store ramp-up. The firm raised its net profit forecasts for 2025/2026/2027 to RMB 150 million, RMB 204 million, and RMB 242 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.2x, 11.2x, and 9.4x. Considering the company's brand strength, product innovation capabilities, and continuous same-store recovery, the report assigned a 14x P/E for 2026, maintaining a "Recommend" rating with a target price of HK$2.24.
In Q3, Tai Er's self-operated same-store daily sales declined by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% drop in the first half, marking three consecutive quarters of recovery. Core cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive same-store sales growth, reflecting initial success in store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments. While Song Hotpot and JIUMAOJIU brands remained under pressure, the decline moderated compared to H1, demonstrating operational resilience.
As of September 30, 2025, the group operated 686 restaurants (including franchises), comprising 530 Tai Er outlets (21 franchised), 71 Song Hotpot, 64 JIUMAOJIU (1 franchised), 1 Lai Meili, 1 Shang Xianyue Mu, and 19 Shan de Shan Waimian (16 under partnership). Tai Er's self-operated table turnover rate stood at 3.3 in Q3 (3.2 in mainland China, 3.9 in other regions), while Song Hotpot and JIUMAOJIU recorded 2.4 and 2.5, respectively. Average spending per customer remained stable at RMB 74 for Tai Er and RMB 100 for Song Hotpot.
The company has shifted its strategy from short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition. The "5.0 Fresh Model," emphasizing live fish, fresh chicken, and beef, has been implemented in 106 stores as of September, with positive market reception. The company plans to accelerate expansion in Q4, targeting over 200 stores by year-end, supported by supply chain and digitalization upgrades.